The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply : a global CGE assessment
AbstractThis study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5513.
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Agribusiness; Food&Beverage Industry; Wetlands; Crops&Crop Management Systems; Renewable Energy;
Other versions of this item:
- Govinda R. Timilsina & John C. Beghin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Simon Mevel, 2012. "The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 315-332, 05.
- Timilsina, Govinda & Beghin, John C. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment," Staff General Research Papers 32206, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
- Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2011-01-16 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2011-01-16 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2011-01-16 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2011-01-16 (Environmental Economics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Impacts of Biofuel Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply
by John Wihbey in Journalist's Resource on 2011-04-07 18:47:27
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