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Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments

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  • Groen, Jan J. J.
  • Pesenti, Paolo

Abstract

In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent literature. In addition, we consider different types of factor-augmented models that use information from a large data set containing a variety of indicators of supply and demand conditions across major developed and developing countries. These factor-augmented models use either standard principal components or partial least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten alternative indices and sub-indices of spot prices for three different commodity classes across different periods. We find that the exchange rate-based model and especially the PLS factor-augmented model are more prone to outperform the naive statistical benchmarks. However, across our range of commodity price indices we are not able to generate out-of-sample forecasts that, on average, are systematically more accurate than predictions based on a random walk or autoregressive specifications.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7689.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7689

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Keywords: Commodity prices; Exchange rates; Factor models; Forecasting; PLS regression;

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References

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  1. Elekdag, Selim & Lalonde, Rene & Laxton, Doug & Muir, Dirk & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6700, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  3. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
  4. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 624, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  6. Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Q. Farooq Akram, 2008. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Working Paper 2008/12, Norges Bank.
  8. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
  9. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/9, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen, 1988. "Real Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices in a Neoclassical Model," MPRA Paper 13188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2006. "Commodity Spot Prices: An Exploratory Assessment of Market Structure and Forward-Trading Effects," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(290), pages 229-256, 05.
  12. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2009. "Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions," Staff Reports 363, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 04/41, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  2. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.
  3. Gazi Salah Uddin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2013. "Measuring co-movement of oil price and exchange rate differential in Bangladesh," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1922-1930.
  4. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
  5. Ding, Liang & Vo, Minh, 2012. "Exchange rates and oil prices: A multivariate stochastic volatility analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 15-37.
  6. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "On the relationship between oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 502-507.
  7. Tokuo Iwaisako, 2011. "Comment on "The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 71-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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