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Commodity prices and inflation dynamics

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  • Stephen G Cecchetti
  • Richhild Moessner

Abstract

Commodity prices rose strongly in recent years until mid-2008, driving inflation up worldwide. This feature investigates aspects of the impact of the rise in food and energy prices on headline inflation and its dynamics using a dataset for CPI inflation and its food and energy components that includes the major advanced and emerging economies. Our evidence suggests that in recent years core inflation has not tended to revert to headline, which suggests that higher commodity prices have generally not spawned strong second-round effects on inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0812f

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  1. Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento, 2000. "Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators," Working Papers w200003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 353-387, 04.
  3. Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
  8. Thérèse Laf;èche & Jamie Armour, 2006. "Evaluating Measures of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Summer), pages 19-29.
  9. Todd E. Clark, 2001. "Comparing measures of core inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-31.
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Cited by:
  1. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
  3. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, 2010. "Key Elements of Global Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Ciner, Cetin, 2011. "Commodity prices and inflation: Testing in the frequency domain," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 229-237, September.
  5. Changyong Rhee & Hangyong Lee, 2013. "Commodity price movements and monetary policy in Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 71-77 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Avalos, Fernando, 2014. "Do oil prices drive food prices? The tale of a structural break," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 253-271.
  7. Ernest Gnan, 2009. "Energy, Commodity and Food Price Volatility: What Policy Responses?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 21-28, 04.

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