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Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts

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  • Ludena, Carlos E.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Preckel, Paul V.
  • Foster, Kenneth A.
  • Nin Pratt, Alejandro

Abstract

There is considerable interest in projections of future productivity growth in agriculture. Whether one is interested in the outlook for global commodity markets, future patterns of international trade, or the interactions between land use, deforestation and ecological diversity, the rate of productivity growth in agriculture is an essential input. Yet solid projections for this variable have proven elusive – particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty in measuring historical productivity growth. The purpose of this paper is to report the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants and non-ruminant livestock, on a global basis. We then follow with tests for convergence amongst regions, providing forecasts for farm productivity growth to the year 2040. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the non-ruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, non-ruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels may be diverging between developed and developing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia with number 25392.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae06:25392

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Keywords: Malmquist index; productivity; convergence; projections; crops; livestock; Productivity Analysis; D24; O13; O47; Q10;

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  1. Tim J. Coelli & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2003. "Total Factor Productivity Growth in Agriculture: A Malmquist Index Analysis of 93 Countries,1980-2000," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022003, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  2. Fare, Rolf & Shawna Grosskopf & Mary Norris & Zhongyang Zhang, 1994. "Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 66-83, March.
  3. Cornwell, Christopher Mark & Wächter, Jens-Uwe, 1999. "Productivity convergence and economic growth: A frontier production function approach," ZEI Working Papers B 06-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  4. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision discussion papers 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996. "Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Rae, Allan N. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(3), September.
  7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  8. Anthony Rezitis, 2005. "Agricultural productivity convergence across Europe and the United States of America," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 443-446.
  9. Channing Arndt & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Bridging the Gap between Partial and Total Factor Productivity Measures Using Directional Distance Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 928-942.
  10. Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
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