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The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment

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Author Info

  • Govinda R. Timilsina
  • John C. Beghin
  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
  • Simon Mevel

Abstract

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00585.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (05)
Pages: 315-332

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Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:315-332

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Impacts of Biofuel Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply
    by John Wihbey in Journalist's Resource on 2011-04-07 18:47:27
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Cited by:
  1. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2012. "Impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on global poverty and income distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6078, The World Bank.
  2. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Mevel, Simon & Shrestha, Ashish, 2011. "Oil price, biofuels and food supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8098-8105.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152134, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  4. Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Du, Xiaodong & Timilsina, Govinda R, 2010. "Second-generation biofuels : economics and policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5406, The World Bank.
  5. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  6. Haile, Mekbib Gebretsadik & Kalkhul, Matthias, 2013. "Volatility in the international food markets: implications for global agricultural supply and for market and price policy," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156097, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  7. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia’s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030," Working Papers 145369, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  9. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
  10. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2013. "Impacts of Ethanol Policy on Corn Prices: A Review and Meta-Analysis of Recent Evidence," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149940, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  11. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Development Economics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  12. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  13. Doumax, Virginie & Philip, Jean-Marc & Sarasa, Cristina, 2014. "Biofuels, tax policies and oil prices in France: Insights from a dynamic CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 603-614.
  14. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2013. "How much does an increase in oil prices affect the global economy ? some insights from a general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6515, The World Bank.
  15. Junko Mochizuki & John F. Yanagida & Makena Coffman, 2013. "Market, Welfare and Land-Use Implications of Lignocellulosic Bioethanol in HawaiÔi," Working Papers 2013-10, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

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