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The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment

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  • Timilsina, Govinda
  • Beghin, John C.
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
  • Mevel, Simon

Abstract

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 32206.

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Date of creation: 15 Dec 2010
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Publication status: Published in Agricultural Economics 2012, vol. 43 no. 3, pp. 315-332
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:32206

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Related research

Keywords: biofuels; ethanol; biodiesel; land use; food supply; food prices; CGE model; impacts;

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Blog mentions

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  1. Impacts of Biofuel Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply
    by John Wihbey in Journalist's Resource on 2011-04-07 18:47:27
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Cited by:
  1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," Departmental Working Papers 2013-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  2. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Haile, Mekbib Gebretsadik & Kalkhul, Matthias, 2013. "Volatility in the international food markets: implications for global agricultural supply and for market and price policy," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156097, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  4. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Doumax, Virginie & Philip, Jean-Marc & Sarasa, Cristina, 2014. "Biofuels, tax policies and oil prices in France: Insights from a dynamic CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 603-614.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
  7. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030," Working Papers 145369, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  8. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2013. "How much does an increase in oil prices affect the global economy ? some insights from a general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6515, The World Bank.
  9. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2012. "Impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on global poverty and income distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6078, The World Bank.
  10. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Mevel, Simon & Shrestha, Ashish, 2011. "Oil price, biofuels and food supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8098-8105.
  11. Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Du, Xiaodong & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2011. "Second generation biofuels: Economics and policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4222-4234, July.
  12. Junko Mochizuki & John F. Yanagida & Makena Coffman, 2013. "Market, Welfare and Land-Use Implications of Lignocellulosic Bioethanol in HawaiÔi," Working Papers 2013-10, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  13. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  14. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia’s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Nicole Condon & Heather Klemick & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Impacts of Ethanol Policy on Corn Prices: A Review and Meta-Analysis of Recent Evidence," NCEE Working Paper Series 201305, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Oct 2013.

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