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Costing Global Trade Barriers, 1900 to 2050

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  • Kym Anderson

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Abstract

By how much did the cost of governmental barriers to trade change over the 20th century, and how might they change by the middle of the 21st century? This paper addresses that question by first reviewing evidence on the changing extent of global trade restrictions since 1900, particularly for agricultural and manufactured goods. It then assesses prospects for trade policy changes over the coming four decades by drawing on current political economy theory and evidence. The paper then provides crude estimates of the annual cost, in terms of economic welfare foregone in high-income and developing countries, of those trade-restricting policies.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2012/wp_econ_2012_08.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2012-08.

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Length: 55
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2012-08

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Keywords: welfare effects of trade restrictions; protectionist history; policy reform;

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References

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  1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, William J. & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The Relative Importance of Global Agricultural Subsidies and Market Access," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21180, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Indrit Hoxha & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "How Big are the Gains from International Financial Integration?," NBER Working Papers 14636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2011. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," CEPR Discussion Papers 8494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2010. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 8102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 2767, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. David S. Jacks & Krishna Pendakur, 2008. "Global Trade and the Maritime Transport Revolution," NBER Working Papers 14139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2003. "Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3193, The World Bank.
  8. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J., 2004. "Learning from exporting revisited in a less developed setting," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 397-416, December.
  9. Isgut, Alberto & Fernandes, Ana, 2007. "Learning-by-Exporting Effects: Are They for Real?," MPRA Paper 3121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Pravin Krishna & Devashish Mitra, . "Trade Liberalization, Market Discipline and Productivity Growth: New Evidence From India," Working Papers 96-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  11. Richard Baldwin & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "International Trade, Offshoring and Heterogeneous Firms," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-014, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
  12. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
  13. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
  14. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, August.
  15. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Kym Anderson, 2009. "Alternative Agricultural Price Distortions for CGE Analysis of Developing Countries, 2004 and 1980-84," GTAP Research Memoranda 2925, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  16. Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Anderson, Kym, 2008. "General equilibrium effects of price distortions on global markets, farm incomes and welfare," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48630, World Bank.
  17. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2005. "Measuring the Restrictiveness of International Trade Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012200, December.
  18. Kenichi Ueda & Robert M. Townsend, 2007. "Welfare Gains From Financial Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 07/154, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  20. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
  21. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow & Tiem Phamduc, 2003. "Measuring the Cost of Barriers to Trade in Services," NBER Chapters, in: Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Nogues, Julio J & Olechowski, Andrzej & Winters, L Alan, 1986. "The Extent of Nontariff Barriers to Industrial Countries' Imports," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(1), pages 181-99, September.
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