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Costing Global Trade Barriers, 1900 to 2050

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  • Kym Anderson

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Abstract

By how much did the cost of governmental barriers to trade change over the 20th century, and how might they change by the middle of the 21st century? This paper addresses that question by first reviewing evidence on the changing extent of global trade restrictions since 1900, particularly for agricultural and manufactured goods. It then assesses prospects for trade policy changes over the coming four decades by drawing on current political economy theory and evidence. The paper then provides crude estimates of the annual cost, in terms of economic welfare foregone in high-income and developing countries, of those trade-restricting policies.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2012/wp_econ_2012_08.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2012-08.

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Length: 55
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2012-08

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Keywords: welfare effects of trade restrictions; protectionist history; policy reform;

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References

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  1. David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp284, IIIS.
  2. Kenichi Ueda & Robert M. Townsend, 2007. "Welfare Gains from Financial Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 07/154, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow & Tiem Phamduc, 2003. "Measuring the Cost of Barriers to Trade in Services," NBER Chapters, in: Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Anderson, Kym & Martin, William J. & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The Relative Importance of Global Agricultural Subsidies and Market Access," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21180, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  5. Nogues, Julio J & Olechowski, Andrzej & Winters, L Alan, 1986. "The Extent of Nontariff Barriers to Industrial Countries' Imports," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(1), pages 181-99, September.
  6. Martin, Will & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5645, The World Bank.
  7. Pravin Krishna & Devashish Mitra, . "Trade Liberalization, Market Discipline and Productivity Growth: New Evidence From India," Working Papers 96-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  8. David S. Jacks & Krishna Pendakur, 2008. "Global Trade and the Maritime Transport Revolution," NBER Working Papers 14139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Isgut, Alberto & Fernandes, Ana, 2007. "Learning-by-Exporting Effects: Are They for Real?," MPRA Paper 3121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
  11. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2003. "Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3193, The World Bank.
  12. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J., 2004. "Learning from exporting revisited in a less developed setting," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 397-416, December.
  13. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2005. "Measuring the Restrictiveness of International Trade Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012200.
  14. Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Anderson, Kym, 2008. "General equilibrium effects of price distortions on global markets, farm incomes and welfare," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48630, World Bank.
  15. Indrit Hoxha & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "How Big are the Gains from International Financial Integration?," NBER Working Papers 14636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  17. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Kym Anderson, 2009. "Alternative Agricultural Price Distortions for CGE Analysis of Developing Countries, 2004 and 1980-84," GTAP Research Memoranda 2925, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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