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The Future of Economic Convergence

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  • Dani Rodrik

Abstract

The question addressed in this paper is whether the gap in performance between the developed and developing worlds can continue, and in particular, whether developing nations can sustain the rapid growth they have experienced of late. The good news is that growth in the developing world should depend not on growth in the advanced economies themselves, but on the difference in the productivity levels of the two groups of countries – on the “convergence gap” – which remains quite large. Yet much of this convergence potential is likely to go to waste. Convergence is anything but automatic, and depends on sustaining rapid structural change in the direction of tradables such as manufacturing and modern services. The policies that successful countries have used to achieve this are hard to emulate. Moreover, these policies – such as currency undervaluation and industrial policies – will meet greater resistance on the part of industrial countries struggling with stagnant economies and high unemployment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17400.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Publication status: published as “The Future of Economic Convergence,” in Achieving Maximum Long - Run Growth , Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 20 12 .
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17400

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  1. Katharina PISTOR, 2000. "The Standardization Of Law And Its Effect On Developing Economies," G-24 Discussion Papers 4, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  2. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Arvind Virmani, 2007. "Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy," NBER Working Papers 12901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dani Rodrik, 2007. "Introductiion to One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth
    [One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  4. Andrei A. Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2011. "The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications," NBER Working Papers 16806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," NBER Working Papers 13290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  8. William Easterly, 2003. "National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal," Working Papers, Center for Global Development 27, Center for Global Development.
  9. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 973-987, December.
  10. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
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Cited by:
  1. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
  2. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Development Economics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Marjan Senjur, 2012. "A competitive growth of a small midle-income country in the eurozone is far to be assured," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 213-233, September.
  4. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "African Financial Development Dynamics: Big Time Convergence," Working Papers 12/003, African Governance and Development Institute..
  5. Voskoboynikov, I. & Timmer, M.P. & Vries, G.J. de & Erumban, A. A. & Wu H.X., 2011. "Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural Transformation and Aggregate Productivity Growth," GGDC Research Memorandum, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen GD-121, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
  6. Osberg, Lars, 2013. "Instability implications of increasing inequality: Evidence from North America," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 918-930.
  7. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 124192, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  8. Bruno, Giuseppe & De Bonis, Riccardo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2012. "Do financial systems converge? New evidence from financial assets in OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-155.
  9. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia’s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Luke Deer & Ligang Song, 2012. "China's Approach to Rebalancing: A Conceptual and Policy Framework," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 1-26, 01.
  11. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," Working Papers 12/004, African Governance and Development Institute..
  12. Parteka, Aleksandra & Wolszczak-Derlacz, Joanna, 2013. "Integrated Sectors - Diversified Earnings: The (Missing) Impact of Offshoring on Wages and Wage Convergence in the EU27," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley qt3tm2935j, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.

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