The literature has shown that the implied welfare gains from international financial integration are very small. We revisit the existing findings and document that welfare gains can be substantial under two scenarios: a) the costs of remaining in autarky are worse than the standard neo-classical model would predict, and b) financial integration has a direct affect on total factor productivity. By estimating the implied path of convergence of rates of return from the actual data and calibrating the welfare gains based on this path, we find that the benefits are nearly 4.3 times larger than the previous estimates. We also find welfare gains are at least 2 times larger than those estimated ignoring the productivity effect. The combined effect of realistic convergence and endogenous productivity as a result of financial integration is equivalent to a nearly 15% permanent increase in consumption.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
14636.
Length: Date of creation: Jan 2009 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14636
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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