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How Big are the Gains from International Financial Integration?

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Author Info
Indrit Hoxha
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Dietrich Vollrath

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Abstract

The literature has shown that the implied welfare gains from international financial integration are very small. We revisit the existing findings and document that welfare gains can be substantial under two scenarios: a) the costs of remaining in autarky are worse than the standard neo-classical model would predict, and b) financial integration has a direct affect on total factor productivity. By estimating the implied path of convergence of rates of return from the actual data and calibrating the welfare gains based on this path, we find that the benefits are nearly 4.3 times larger than the previous estimates. We also find welfare gains are at least 2 times larger than those estimated ignoring the productivity effect. The combined effect of realistic convergence and endogenous productivity as a result of financial integration is equivalent to a nearly 15% permanent increase in consumption.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14636.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14636

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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  1. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(3), pages 715-741, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert J. Barro & N. Gregory Mankiw & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," NBER Working Papers 4206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Henry, Peter B., 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, The Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," Research Papers 1778, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Brian J. Aitken & Ann E. Harrison, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harrison, Ann E. & Love, Inessa & McMillan, Margaret S., 2004. "Global capital flows and financing constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 269-301, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Caves, Richard E, 1974. "Multinational Firms, Competition, and Productivity in Host-Country Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(162), pages 176-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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