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Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

Rapid growth in Asia’s emerging economies has boosted export earnings of resource-rich economies over the past decade. Whether or not those high growth rates continue, how will structural changes in Asia alter the relative importance of their imports of primary products? This paper projects production and trade patterns of Africa and Latin America to 2030 under various growth and policy scenarios in Asia, using the GTAP model of the global economy. We compare a projection assuming relatively conservative economic growth in China and India with a projection in which those economies continue to grow rapidly (albeit slower than in the previous decade). We then compare our conservative growth baseline with two alternative scenarios: one assuming Africa and Latin America choose to invest more in public agricultural R&D to take advantage of Asian import growth; the other assuming China and India dampen that import growth by restricting their imports of key foodgrains (following the historical pattern of economies such as Japan and Korea). The final section summarizes the results and draws out policy implications for Latin America and Africa.
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  • Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2016. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 172-194, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:39:y:2016:i:2:p:172-194
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2019. "U.K. and Global Wine Markets by 2025, and Implications of Brexit," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 6, pages 131-146, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2019. "Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(2), pages 32-71, September.
    3. Korovin, Vladimir & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Boysen, Ole & Brockmeier, Martina, 2017. "Global food supply meets global food demand: Should we bother about the household distribution in global CGE models?," Conference papers 332853, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2018. "Cumulative Effects of Brexit and Other UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on the World's Wine Markets," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2018-01, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Wittwer, Glyn, 2018. "Cumulative Effects of Brexit and Other UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on the World’s Wine Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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