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Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

This paper projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources to support projections of the global economy. The baseline projection assumes trade-related policies do not change in each region but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. This enables us to analyse how potential global changes may impact the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the impacts of three potential policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, as might be associated with the opening of Myanmar; Indonesia's recently-imposed export taxes on unprocessed primary products; and implementation of Indonesia's new Food Law.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2014/wp_econ_2014_10.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2014-10.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2014-10

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Keywords: Global economy-wide model projections; Indonesian economic growth and structural change; Food policy; Export taxes;

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  1. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 9779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. Peter A. Petri, 2010. "The Determinants of Bilateral FDI: Is Asia Different?," Working Papers 12, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
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  19. Kym Anderson & Mari Pangestu, 1998. "Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 85-113.
  20. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-99, October.
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  22. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
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