The Future of Economic Convergence
AbstractNovelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart's timely comic novel "Super Sad True Love Story" (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision of what lies in store for the world economy. The novel takes place in the near future and is set against the backdrop of a United States that lies in economic and political ruin. The country's bankrupt economy is ruled with a firm hand by the IMF from its new Parthenon-shaped headquarters in Singapore. China and sovereign wealth funds have parceled America's most desirable real estate among themselves. Poor people are designated as LNWI ("low net worth individuals") and are being pushed into ghettoes. Even skilled Americans are desperate to acquire residency status in foreign lands. This is sheer fantasy of course, but one that seems to resonate well with the collective mood. A future in which the U.S and other advanced economies are forced to play second fiddle to the dynamic emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere is rapidly becoming cliche. This vision is based in part on the very rapid pace of economic growth that emerging and developing economies experienced in the run-up to the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Latin America benefited from a pace of economic development that it had not experienced since the 1970s, and Africa began to close the gap with the advanced countries for the first time since countries in the continent received their independence. Even though most of these countries were hit badly by the crisis, their recovery has also been swift. Optimism on developing countries is matched by pessimism on the rich country front. The United States and Europe have emerged from the crisis with debilitating challenges. They need to address a crushing debt burden and its unpleasant implications for fiscal and monetary policy. They also need to replace growth models which were based in many instances on finance, real estate, and unsustainable levels of borrowing. Japan has long ceased to exhibit any growth dynamism. And the eurozone's future remains highly uncertain--with the economic and political ramifications of its unraveling looking nothing less than scary. In such an environment, rapid growth in the developing world is the only thing that could propel the world economy forward and generate increasing demand for rich-country goods and services--the only silver lining in an otherwise dreary future. The question I address in this paper is whether this gap in performance between the developed and developing worlds can continue, and in particular, whether developing nations can sustain the rapid growth they have experienced of late. I will not have anything to say on the prospects for the advanced economies themselves, assuming, along with conventional wisdom, that their growth will remain sluggish at best. My focus is squarely on the developing and emerging countries and on the likelihood of continued convergence.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp11-033.
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 79 JFK Street, Cambridge, MA 02138
Web page: http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/research/working_papers/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Dani Rodrik, 2011. "The future of economic convergence," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 13-52.
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2011-10-09 (Development)
- NEP-FDG-2011-10-09 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-PKE-2011-10-09 (Post Keynesian Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2011-10-09 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani, 2012.
"Globalization, structural change, and productivity growth:,"
IFPRI discussion papers
1160, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007.
"Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India,"
07-006, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448, November.
- Chang, Tai Hsieh & Peter, J- Klenow, 2007. "Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India," MPRA Paper 35084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," Working Papers 09-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," NBER Working Papers 13290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J Klenow, 2008. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," 2008 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005.
Handbook of Economic Growth,
in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677
- Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
- William Easterly, 2003.
"National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal,"
27, Center for Global Development.
- Easterly, William, 2005. "National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1015-1059 Elsevier.
- Katharina PISTOR, 2000. "The Standardization Of Law And Its Effect On Developing Economies," G-24 Discussion Papers 4, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Arvind Virmani, 2007.
"Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy,"
NBER Working Papers
12901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dani Rodrik, 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 973-987, December.
- Dani Rodrik, 2007.
"Introductiion to One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth
[One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Jing Zhang & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2011.
"The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications,"
2011 Meeting Papers
302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Andrei A. Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2011. "The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications," NBER Working Papers 16806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
- Bruno, Giuseppe & De Bonis, Riccardo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2012. "Do financial systems converge? New evidence from financial assets in OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-155.
- Gaaitzen J. de Vries & Abdul A. Erumban & Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov & Harry X. Wu, 2011.
"Deconstructing The BRICs: Structural Transformation And Aggregate Productivity Growth,"
HSE Working papers
WP BRP 04/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Erumban, Abdul A. & Timmer, Marcel P. & Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Wu, Harry X., 2012. "Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 211-227.
- Voskoboynikov, I. & Timmer, M.P. & Vries, G.J. de & Erumban, A. A. & Wu H.X., 2011. "Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural Transformation and Aggregate Productivity Growth," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-121, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
- Asongu Simplice, 2012.
"African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment,"
12/004, African Governance and Development Institute..
- Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," MPRA Paper 36055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marjan Senjur, 2012. "A competitive growth of a small midle-income country in the eurozone is far to be assured," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 213-233, September.
- Asongu Simplice, 2012.
"African Financial Development Dynamics: Big Time Convergence,"
12/003, African Governance and Development Institute..
- Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "African Financial Development Dynamics: Big Time Convergence," MPRA Paper 36053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012.
"Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030,"
ADBI Working Papers
368, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Development Economics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Parteka, Aleksandra & Wolszczak-Derlacz, Joanna, 2013. "Integrated Sectors - Diversified Earnings: The (Missing) Impact of Offshoring on Wages and Wage Convergence in the EU27," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt3tm2935j, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
- Luke Deer & Ligang Song, 2012. "China's Approach to Rebalancing: A Conceptual and Policy Framework," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 1-26, 01.
- Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124192, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia’s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Osberg, Lars, 2013. "Instability implications of increasing inequality: Evidence from North America," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 918-930.
- Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.