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Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy

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  • Barry Bosworth
  • Susan M. Collins
  • Arvind Virmani

Abstract

This paper empirically examines India's economic growth experience during 1960-2004, focusing on the post 1973 acceleration. Careful attention is paid to data quality. The analysis focuses on two unusual dimensions of India's experience -- the concentration of growth in services production, and the modest levels of human and physical capital accumulation. A growth accounting analysis disaggregates by major sector, and highlights implications for aggregate productivity growth of the reallocation of resources out of agriculture to more productive activities in industry and services. But concerns are raised that growth in services may be overstated. India will need to broaden its current expansion to provide manufactured goods for the world market and jobs for its large pool of low-skilled workers. Increased public saving, as well as a rise in foreign saving -- particularly FDI -- could augment the rising household saving and support the increased investment necessary to sustain rapid growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12901.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12901

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  1. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Where has all the education gone?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1581, The World Bank.
  2. Puja Vasudeva Dutta, 2004. "The Structure of Wages in India, 1983-1999," PRUS Working Papers 25, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.
  3. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
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  5. Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Ridao-Cano, Cris & Sakellariou, Chris, 2006. "Estimating the returns to education : accounting for heterogeneity in ability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4040, The World Bank.
  6. P. Duraisamy, 2000. "Changes in Returns to Education in India, 1983-94: By Gender, Age-Cohort and Location," Working Papers 815, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  7. Norman Loayza & Rashmi Shankar, 2000. "Private Saving in India," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 571-594, September.
  8. Tim J. Coelli & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2003. "Total Factor Productivity Growth in Agriculture: A Malmquist Index Analysis of 93 Countries,1980-2000," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022003, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  9. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 47, Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Duraisamy, P., 2000. "Changes in Returns to Education in India, 1983-94: By Gender, Age-Cohort and Location," Papers 815, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  11. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Michael Kremer & Nazmul Chaudhury & F. Halsey Rogers & Karthik Muralidharan & Jeffrey Hammer, 2005. "Teacher Absence in India: A Snapshot," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 658-667, 04/05.
  13. Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "India in the 1980s and 1990s: A Triumph of Reforms," IMF Working Papers 04/43, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Psacharopoulos, George & Patrinos, Harry Anthony, 2002. "Returns to investment in education : a further update," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2881, The World Bank.
  15. Poonam Gupta & James P. F. Gordon, 2004. "Understanding India’s Services Revolution," IMF Working Papers 04/171, International Monetary Fund.
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