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Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance

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  • Arvind Subramanian

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In his new book, Arvind Subramanian presents the following possibilities: What if, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States's economic pre-eminence is not, as many economists and policymakers would like to believe, in its own hands, but China's to determine? Subramanian's analysis is based on a new index of economic dominance grounded in a historical perspective. His examination makes use of real-world examples, comparing China's rise with the past hegemonies of Great Britain and the United States. His attempt to quantify and project economic and currency dominance leads him to the conclusion that China's dominance is not only more imminent, but also broader in scope, and much larger in magnitude, than is currently imagined. He explores the profound effect this might have on the United States, as well as on the global financial and trade system. Subramanian concludes with a series of policy proposals for other nations to reconcile China's rise with continued openness in the global economic order, and to insure against China becoming a malign hegemon.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Press: All Books with number 6062 and published in 2011.

ISBN: 978-0-88132-606-2
Handle: RePEc:iie:ppress:6062

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Cited by:
  1. Kawai, Masahiro, 2014. "Asian Monetary Integration: A Japanese Perspective," ADBI Working Papers 475, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Popov, V., 2012. "Why the West got Rich Before Other Countries and Why China is Catching Up With the West Today? New Answer to the Old Question," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 35-64.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents," Scholarly Articles 10592469, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Armijo, Leslie Elliott & Mühlich, Laurissa & Tirone, Daniel C., 2014. "The systemic financial importance of emerging powers," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages S67-S88.
  5. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," ADBI Working Papers 484, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
  7. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2014. "A Demand-Side Analysis of Renminbi Internationalisation: The Renminbi in South Korea," GRIPS Discussion Papers 14-02, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  8. Prasad, Eswar, 2014. "Global Implications of the Renminbi’s Ascendance," ADBI Working Papers 469, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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