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Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Mari Pangestu

Abstract

How will rapid East Asian industrialisation and international trade policy reforms affect Indonesia's economy? Taking an economy-wide perspective and drawing on projections to 2005, based on a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP), we show the impact of Uruguay Round implementation, and explore other international influences on Indonesia's and neighbouring economies. Trade reforms likely to accompany China's (and Taiwan's) membership of the WTO are projected to boost the competitiveness of Indonesia's primary sectors at the expense of light manufacturing and the overall economy, while failure by OECD countries to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open their textile and clothing markets would reduce industrialisation in the region, slowing growth in its net food imports. The benefits to Indonesia of APEC liberalisations are also reported. All projections were completed in 1997 before the enormity of the financial crisis became clear; follow-on research should quantify the growth slowdown's impact on these results.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 34 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 85-113

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Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:34:y:1998:i:3:p:85-113

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  1. Bernard, A.B. & Jones, C.I., 1993. "Productivity Across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," Working papers 93-17, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Warwick. J. McKibbin, . "Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis," Discussion Papers 122, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  3. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 1992. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521351058.
  4. repec:fth:michin:378 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Deardoff, A.V. & Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M., 1995. "Modelling Multilateral Trade Liberalization in Services," Working Papers 378, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  6. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Zhi Wang, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round : the implications of an Asian free trade area," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1467, The World Bank.
  7. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  2. Anna Strutt & Kym Anderson, 2000. "Will Trade Liberalization Harm the Environment? The Case of Indonesia to 2020," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 17(3), pages 203-232, November.
  3. George Verikios & Kevin Hanslow, 2009. "The Long-Run Effects of Structural Change and the Treatment of International Capital Accumulation, Mobility and Ownership," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-179, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

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