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Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions

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Author Info

  • Ernesto Valenzuela

    ()

  • Kym Anderson
  • Thomas Hertel

Abstract

The WTOÂ’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001. However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10368-007-0094-4
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal International Economics and Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (February)
Pages: 395-420

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Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:395-420

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=111059

Related research

Keywords: Trade policy reform; WTO; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; C68; F17; Q17;

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References

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  1. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 168-194.
  2. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr & Angelo Gurgel, 2004. "Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(3), pages 289-317.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005. "Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3607, The World Bank.
  4. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 1992. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521351058, October.
  5. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Would multilateral trade reform benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3616, The World Bank.
  7. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "WTOÂ’s Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-06, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  8. Timothy J. Kehoe & Clemente Polo & Ferran Sancho, 1994. "An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 480, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November.
  10. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
  11. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  12. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  13. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
  14. Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "Armington Elasticities and Terms of Trade Effects in Global CGE Models," Staff Working Papers 0601, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November.
  2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  3. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Tirado-Seco, Pablo & Samson, Réjean, 2012. "Macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005–2025 European Union bioenergy policy using the GTAP model and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1180-1192.
  4. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  5. James Scott & Rorden Wilkinson, 2012. "Changing of the guard: expert knowledge and ‘common sense’ in the Doha Development Agenda," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 16612, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
  6. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  7. Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., Jr., 2010. "Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand Across 114 Countries," Technical Bulletins 59870, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  8. James Scott, 2012. "Squeezing the state: tariff revenue, state capacity and the WTO’s Doha Round," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 16912, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
  9. Németh, Gabriella & Szabó, László & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2011. "Estimation of Armington elasticities in a CGE economy-energy-environment model for Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1993-1999, July.

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