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Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?

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Author Info
Anderson, Kym
Martin, Will
van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

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Abstract

This paper examines whether, in the presence of trade preferences, Sub-Saharan African economies, and especially its poorest households, could gain from multilateral trade reform. The World Bank’s LINKAGE model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO’s Doha round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in sub-Saharan Africa proportionately more than in other developing countries or in high-income countries, despite a terms of trade loss in parts of the region. Farm employment and output, the real value of agricultural and food exports, the real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes would all rise in the region, thereby alleviating poverty. A Doha partial liberalization of both agricultural and no-agricultural trade could take the region some way towards those desirable outcomes, but more so the more both rich and poor countries reduce their applied tariffs.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5049.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5049

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Related research
Keywords: computable general equilibrium multilateral negotiationa sub-Saharan Africa trade policy WTO

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kym Anderson & Lee Ann Jackson, 2005. "Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 385-410, September.
  2. Bernard Hoekman & Francis Ng & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2004. "Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies: Which Are More Important for Developing Economies?," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 175-204.
  3. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
  4. Antoine Bouet & Lionel Fontagne & Sebastien Jean, 2005. "Is Erosion of Tariff Preferences a Serious Concern?," Working Papers 2005-14, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  5. Finger, J M, 1974. "GATT Tariff Concessions and the Exports of Developing Countries-United States Concessions at the Dillon Round," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(335), pages 566-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Finger, J M, 1976. "Effects of the Kennedy Round Tariff Concessions on the Exports of Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(341), pages 87-95, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Finger, J. Michael & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1999. "Market access advances and retreats : the Uruguay Round and beyond," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2232, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sebastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marcelo Olarreaga & Çaglar Özden, 2005. "AGOA and Apparel: Who Captures the Tariff Rent in the Presence of Preferential Market Access?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 63-77, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Datt, Gaurav, 1998. "Computational tools for poverty measurement and analysis," FCND discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  14. David Dollar & Aart Kraay, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F22-F49, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Antoine Bouet & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagne & Sebastien Jean & David Laborde, 2004. "A Consistent, Ad-Valorem Equivalent Measure of Applied Protection Across the World: The MAcMap-HS6 Database," Working Papers 2004-22, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What’s at Stake for Developing Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5156, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Alan Matthews & Tom Giblin, 2006. "Policy Coherence, Agriculture and Development," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp112, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Manuela Goretti & Hans Weisfeld, 2008. "Trade in the WAEMU: Developments and Reform Opportunities," IMF Working Papers 08/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 5567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kohnert, Dirk, 2006. "On the benefit of African immigration to Europe. Turn in the EU immigration policy?," MPRA Paper 1064, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol & Jian Zhang, 2007. "The Impact Of Trade Liberalisation On Water Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-142, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  7. Yongzheng Yang, 2005. "Africa in the Doha Round: Dealing with Preference Erosion and Beyond," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/8, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alan Matthews & Hannah Chaplin & Thomas Giblin & Marian Mraz, 2007. "Strengthening Policy Coherence for Development in Agricultural Policy: Policy Recommendations to Irish Aid," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp188, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Osakwe, Patrick N., 2006. "Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa," MPRA Paper 1851, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005. "Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3607, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The World Trade Organization's Doha cotton initiative : a tale of two issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3918, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Chris Jones & Oliver Morrissey, . "Are Imports in Africa Responsive to Tariff Reductions?," Discussion Papers 08/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT. [Downloadable!]
  13. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Distortions to world trade: impacts on agricultural markets and farm incomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3736, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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