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Doha merchandise trade reform : what's at stake for developing countries ?

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Author Info
Anderson, Kym
Martin, Will
van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

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Abstract

This paper provides new estimates of the global gains from multilateral trade reform and their distribution among developing countries in the presence of trade preferences. Particular attention is given to agriculture, as farmers constitute the poorest households in developing countries but are the most assisted in rich countries. The latest GTAP database (Version 6.05) and the LINKAGE model of the global economy are used to examine the impact first of current merchandise trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible reform outcomes from the WTO's Doha Development Agenda. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionately more than in other developing countries or high-income countries, despite a terms of trade loss in parts of that region. Net farm incomes would rise substantially in that and other developing country regions, thereby alleviating rural poverty. A Doha partial liberalization could move the world some way toward those desirable outcomes, but more so the more developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs, particularly on agricultural imports.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3848.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3848

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Related research
Keywords: Agribusiness; Free Trade; Economic Theory&Research; Country Strategy&Performance; Trade Policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Distortions to world trade: impacts on agricultural markets and farm incomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3736, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The relative importance of global agricultural subsidies and market access," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3900, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bernard Hoekman & Francis Ng & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2004. "Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies: Which Are More Important for Developing Economies?," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 175-204.
  4. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
  5. Lluch, Constantino, 1973. "The extended linear expenditure system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 21-32, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Antoine Bouet & Lionel Fontagne & Sebastien Jean, 2005. "Is Erosion of Tariff Preferences a Serious Concern?," Working Papers 2005-14, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2004. "The Economics of the World Trading System," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524341.
  8. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Would multilateral trade reform benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3616, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Wacziarg, Romain & Wallack, Jessica Seddon, 2004. "Trade liberalization and intersectoral labor movements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 411-439, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr & Angelo Gurgel, 2004. "Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 289-317.
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  12. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hoekman, Bernard & Ozden, Caglar, 2005. "Trade preferences and differential treatment of developing countries : a selective survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3566, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sebastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  15. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  16. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2005. "Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Marcelo Olarreaga & Çaglar Özden, 2005. "AGOA and Apparel: Who Captures the Tariff Rent in the Presence of Preferential Market Access?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 63-77, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2009. "How important is the new goods margin in international trade?," Staff Report 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  19. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June. [Downloadable!]
  20. Antoine Bouet & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagne & Sebastien Jean & David Laborde, 2004. "A Consistent, Ad-Valorem Equivalent Measure of Applied Protection Across the World: The MAcMap-HS6 Database," Working Papers 2004-22, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bouët, Antoine, 2006. "What can the poor expect from trade liberalization?: opening the "black box" of trade modeling," MTID discussion papers 93, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin, Will & Anderson, Kym, 2006. "The Doha Agenda and Agricultural Trade Reform: The Role of Economic Analysis," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25628, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sebastian Hess & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2007. "Assessing General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes using Meta-Analysis," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 67, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Policy Modelling: Insights from a Meta-Analysis of Doha Development Agenda Outcomes," Commissioned Papers 43466, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network. [Downloadable!]
  5. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Distortions to world trade: impacts on agricultural markets and farm incomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3736, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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