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Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Ernesto Valenzuela
  • Lee Ann Jackson

Abstract

This article provides estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results suggest that if other developing countries—especially in sub-Saharan Africa—were to follow the lead of China, South Africa, and most recently India, adoption of GM cotton varieties could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those early-adopting countries. Furthermore, those estimated gains are shown to exceed—and reinforce—those from a successful campaign under the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda to reduce/remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Economic Development and Cultural Change.

Volume (Year): 56 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 265-296

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:v:56:y:2008:p:265-296

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Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/EDCC/

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  1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, 08.
  2. Kym Anderson & Lee Ann Jacskon, 2004. "Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2004-09, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  3. Matin Qaim & Arjunan Subramanian & Gopal Naik & David Zilberman, 2006. "Adoption of Bt Cotton and Impact Variability: Insights from India," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 48-58.
  4. Richard Bennett & Uma Kambhampati & Stephen Morse & Yousouf Ismael, 2006. "Farm-Level Economic Performance of Genetically Modified Cotton in Maharashtra, India," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 59-71.
  5. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-17, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  6. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
  7. Hertel, Thomas W & Masters, William A & Elbehri, Aziz, 1998. "The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 7(2), pages 208-36, July.
  8. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2004. "Biotechnology boosts to crop productivity in China: trade and welfare implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 27-54, October.
  9. Anderson, Kym & Nielsen, Chantal, 2004. "Economic Effects of Agricultural Biotechnology Research in the Presence of Price-Distorting Policies," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 374-394.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pitoro, Raul & Walker, Thomas S. & Tschirley, David L. & Swinton, Scott M. & Boughton, Duncan & de Marrule, Higino Francisco, 2009. "Can Bt Technology Reduce Poverty Among African Cotton Growers? An Ex Ante Analysis of the Private and Social Profitability of Bt Cotton Seed in Mozambique," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51633, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong Lu & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(02), May.
  3. Graham Brookes & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid, 2010. "Production and Price Impact of Biotech Crops, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 10-wp503, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  4. repec:laf:wpaper:201002 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Subramanian, Arjunan & Qaim, Matin, 2009. "Rural Poverty and Employment Effects of Bt Cotton in India," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50555, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Antoine Bouet & Guillaume Gruere, 2010. "Refining opportunity cost estimates of not adopting GM cotton : An application in seven sub-saharan african countries," Working Papers hal-00637587, HAL.
  7. Baffes, John, 2011. "Cotton, biotechnology, and economic development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5896, The World Bank.

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