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Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility

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  • Valenzuela, Ernesto
  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Keeney, Roman
  • Reimer, Jeff

Abstract

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. However, concerns are sometimes raised about the quality of their output since key parameters may not be econometrically estimated and little emphasis is generally given to model assessment. This article addresses the latter issue by developing an approach to validating CGE models based on the ability to reproduce observed price volatility in agricultural markets. We show how patterns in the deviations between model predictions and validation criteria can be used to identify the weak points of a model and guide development of improved specifications with firmer empirical foundations.

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File URL: http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=1875
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Working Papers with number 1875.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:1875

Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 32
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Cited by:
  1. Pratt, Stephen & Blake, Adam & Swann, Peter, 2013. "Dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty: Uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 429-439.
  2. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D'une crise à l'autre : mesurer l'impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Working Papers hal-00637608, HAL.
  3. Ernesto Valenzuela & Kym Anderson & Thomas Hertel, 2007. "Impacts of Trade Reform: Sensitivity of Model Results to Key Assumptions," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-09, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  4. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D’une crise à l’autre : Mesurer l’impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Larefi Working Papers 1106, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
  5. Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W., 2009. "Commodity price volatility and nutrition vulnerability:," IFPRI discussion papers 895, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2005. "Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. repec:laf:wpaper:201106 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Surabhi Mittal, 2007. "OECD Agricultural Trade Reforms Impact on India's Prices and Producers Welfare," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 195, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
  9. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Osakwe, Patrick N., 2006. "Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa," MPRA Paper 1851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Surabhi Mittal, 2007. "Oecd Agricultural Trade Reforms Impact On India’s Prices And Producers Welfare," Trade Working Papers 22225, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  11. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.

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