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Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change

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  • Ahmed, Syud Amer
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Martin, William J.

Abstract

Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partnersâ.. usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzaniaâ..s trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2011/91.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-91

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Keywords: climate change; volatility; Tanzania; trade; export ban; agriculture;

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References

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  1. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
  2. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2611, July.
  3. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  4. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
  5. Noah Diffenbaugh & Martin Scherer, 2011. "Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 615-624, August.
  6. Jayne, Thomas S. & Chapoto, Antony & Minde, Isaac J. & Donovan, Cynthia, 2008. "The 2008/09 Food Price and Food Security Situation in Eastern and Southern Africa: Implications for Immediate and Longer Run Responses," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54556, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  7. Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2009. "Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 543-559, November.
  8. Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Li, Man, 2009. "Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), October.
  9. Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
  10. Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2006. "Poverty and the WTO : Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7411, July.
  11. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Hertel, Thomas W., 2013. "Land, environment and climate: Contributing to the global public good," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Diao, Xinshen & Kennedy, Adam & Mabiso, Athur & Pradesha, Angga, 2013. "Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:," IFPRI discussion papers 1287, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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