Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change
AbstractGiven global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partnersÃ¢.. usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of TanzaniaÃ¢..s trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.
Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669
Other versions of this item:
- Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 2012. "Agriculture and trade opportunities for Tanzania : past volatility and future climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6132, The World Bank.
- Ahmed, Syud Amer & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 2011. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Li, Man, 2009. "Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), October.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007.
"How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," GTAP Working Papers 1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009.
"Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia,"
World Bank Publications,
The World Bank, number 2611, October.
- Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2006. "Poverty and the WTO : Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7411, October.
- Jayne, Thomas S. & Chapoto, Antony & Minde, Isaac J. & Donovan, Cynthia, 2008. "The 2008/09 Food Price and Food Security Situation in Eastern and Southern Africa: Implications for Immediate and Longer Run Responses," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54556, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2009.
"Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?,"
Review of Development Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 543-559, November.
- Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Ivanic, Maros & Winters, Alan, 2007. "Why Isn’t the Doha Development Agenda More Poverty Friendly?," GTAP Working Papers 2292, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
- Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
- Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel , Thomas W. & Lobell, David B. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009.
"Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
5117, The World Bank.
- Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Noah Diffenbaugh & Martin Scherer, 2011. "Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 615-624, August.
- Diao, Xinshen & Kennedy, Adam & Mabiso, Athur & Pradesha, Angga, 2013. "Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:," IFPRI discussion papers 1287, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Hertel, Thomas W., 2013. "Land, environment and climate: Contributing to the global public good," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.