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Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania

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  • Ahmed , Syud Amer
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
  • Hertel , Thomas W.
  • Lobell, David B.
  • Ramankutty, Navin
  • Rios, Ana R.
  • Rowhani, Pedram

Abstract

Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania’s population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climate scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5117.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5117

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Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Science of Climate Change; Regional Economic Development; Climate Change Economics;

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  1. Morrissey, Oliver & Leyaro, Vincent, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Tanzania," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48550, World Bank.
  2. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
  4. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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Cited by:
  1. World Bank, 2012. "Bangladesh - Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth : Opportunities and Challenges, Volume 2. Main Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12121, The World Bank.
  2. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
  3. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio & Brahmbhatt, Milan, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 51, pages 1-5, March.
  4. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 2013-017, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  6. World Bank, 2010. "Climate Change and Economic Policies in APEC Economies : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2948, The World Bank.
  7. Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, 08.
  8. Pamela Ragazzi, 2012. "Climate Change and Migration: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 2012031, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
  9. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, 08.
  10. Muller, Adrian & Olesen, Joergen & Smith, Laurence & Davis, Joan & Dytrtová, Karolína & Gattinger, Andreas & Lampkin, Nic & Niggli, Urs, 2012. "Reducing Global Warming and Adapting to Climate Change: The Potential of Organic Agriculture," Working Papers in Economics 526, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  11. de la Fuente, Alejandro & Villarroel, Marcelo Olivera, 2013. "The poverty impact of climate change in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6461, The World Bank.
  12. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(6), pages 2727-2750, June.
  13. Hussein, Zekarias & Hertel, Thomas & Golub, Alla, 2013. "Climate change, mitigation policy, and poverty in developing countries," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150732, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  14. Tali Hatuka & Hadas Saaroni, 2013. "Resilience of Outdoor Spaces in an Era of Climate Change: The Problem of Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 90-99, January.

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