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Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries

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Ivanic, Maros
Martin, Will

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Abstract

In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4594.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4594

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Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction; Markets and Market Access; Population Policies; Achieving Shared Growth;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dessus, Sebastien, 2008. "The short and longer term potential welfare impact of global commodity inflation in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4760, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa, 2008. "Supply response to changes in agricultural commodity prices in Asian countries," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0808, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Parra, Juan Carlos & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Comparing the impact of food and energy price shocks on consumers : a social accounting matrix analysis for Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4741, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Headey, Derek & Fan, Shenggen, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: The causes and consequences of surging food prices," IFPRI discussion papers 831, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers id:2241, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  11. Argentino Pessoa, 2008. "Do the Malthusian fears ever die? A note on the recent increase in food prices," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 17(22), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michiel Keyzer & Max Merbis & Roelf Voortman, 2008. "The Biofuel Controversy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 507-527, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4703, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 0907, Tulane University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48557, World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Tsimpo, Clarence & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Rice prices and poverty in Liberia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4742, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2008. "Intra-Country Distributional Impact of Policies to Fight Climate Change: A Survey," ECARES Working Papers 2008_038, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  19. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4740, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. Nouve, Kofi & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Impact of rising rice prices and policy responses in Mali : simulations with a dynamic CGE model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4739, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Sahlén, Linda, 2008. "The Impacts of Food- and Oil Price Shocks on the Namibian Economy: the Role of Water Scarcity," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 758, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Valero-Gil, Jorge & Valero, Magali, 2008. "The effects of rising food prices on poverty in Mexico," MPRA Paper 10221, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  23. Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Headey, Derek & Johnson, Michael & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Yu, Bingxin, 2008. "Accelerating Africa's food production in response to rising food prices: Impacts and requisite actions," IFPRI discussion papers 825, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  24. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2008. "Distributional impact of global warming environmental policies: A survey," Cahiers de recherche 08-14, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
  25. Wodon, Quentin & Zaman, Hassan, 2008. "Rising food prices in Sub-Saharan Africa : poverty impact and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4738, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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