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Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture

Author

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  • Tobey, James A.
  • Reilly, John M.
  • Kane, Sally

Abstract

This paper challenges the hypothesis that negative yield effects in key temperate grain producing regions of the world resulting from global climate change would have a serious impact on world food production. Model results demonstrate that even with concurrent productivity losses in the major grain producing regions of the world, global warming will not seriously disrupt world agricultural markets. Country/regional crop yield changes induce interregional adjustments in production and consumption that serve to buffer the severity of climate change impacts on world agriculture and result in relatively modest impacts on world agricultural prices and domestic economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-10, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30725
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30725
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Winters & Rinku Murgai & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain de Janvry & George Frisvold, 1998. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Katherine Calvin & Bryan K. Mignone & Haroon S. Kheshgi & Abigail C. Snyder & Pralit Patel & Marshall Wise & Leon E. Clarke & Jae Edmonds, 2020. "Global Market And Economic Welfare Implications Of Changes In Agricultural Yields Due To Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, August.
    4. Shakeel Ahmad & Muhammad Tariq & Touseef Hussain & Qasir Abbas & Hamidullah Elham & Iqbal Haider & Xiangmei Li, 2020. "Does Chinese FDI, Climate Change, and CO 2 Emissions Stimulate Agricultural Productivity? An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Lambert, D.K. & McCarl, B.A. & He, Q. & Kaylen, M.S. & Rosenthal, W. & Chang, C.C. & Nayda, W.I., 1995. "Uncertain Yields in Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application to Global Warming," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 423-436, December.
    6. Blanco, Maria & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2014. "Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182826, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Aguiar, Angel H. & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2010. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of International Migration," Conference papers 331951, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Minfeng Yu & Yi Si & Gaoliang Tian & Lei Zhang, 2023. "Climate risk and audit fees: An international study," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 4989-5025, December.
    9. William M. Fonta & Aymar Y. Bossa & Mouhamadou B. Sylla, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Plantation Agriculture in Nigeria: Implication for Enhanced Productivity," Working Papers 342, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    10. Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, August.
    11. Valdes, Constanza & Arriola, Christine & Somwaru, Agapi & Gasques, Jose Garcia, 2010. "Brazil’S Climate Adaptation Policies: Impacts On Agriculture," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91420, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    12. Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799-822.
    13. Nelson, Gerald & Palazzo, Amanda & Ringler, Claudia & Sulser, Timothy & Batka, Miroslav, 2009. "The Role of International Trade in Climate Change Adaptation," Climate Change 320106, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    14. Cai, Ruohong & Yu, Danlin & Oppenheimer, Michael, 2014. "Estimating the Spatially Varying Responses of Corn Yields toWeather Variations using GeographicallyWeighted Panel Regression," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-23.
    15. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    16. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    17. Williams, Michael, 1995. "Global warming and carbon taxation: Optimal policy and the role of administration costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 319-327, October.
    18. Frisvold, George B. & Sullivan, John & Raneses, Anton, 2003. "Genetic improvements in major US crops: the size and distribution of benefits," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 109-119, March.
    19. Blanco, María & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Martínez, Pilar & Fumagalli, Davide & Ceglar, Andrej & Fernández, Francisco J., 2017. "Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 52-66.
    20. Md. Nur Islam & Md. Abdul Wadud, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Bangladesh: A Review," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 4(9), pages 125-137.
    21. Reilly, J. & Paltsev, S. & Felzer, B. & Wang, X. & Kicklighter, D. & Melillo, J. & Prinn, R. & Sarofim, M. & Sokolov, A. & Wang, C., 2007. "Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5370-5383, November.
    22. Martinez, Pilar & Blanco, Maria & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Ramos, Fabien & Stanca, Lucian, 2015. "What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212230, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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