Uncertain Yields In Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application To Global Warming
AbstractAgriculture operates in an uncertain environment. Yields, prices, and resource usage can change dramatically from year to year. However, most analyses of the agricultural sector, at least those using mathematical programming methods, assume decision making is based on average yields, ignoring yield variability. This study examines how explicit consideration of stochastic yield outcomes influence a sector analysis. We develop a model that can be used for stochastic sector analysis. We extend the risk framework developed by Hazell and others to incorporate discrete yield outcomes as well as consumption activities dependent upon yield outcomes. An empirical application addresses a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of the economic effects of yield variability in a global warming context.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (1995)
Issue (Month): 02 (December)
Agricultural sector analysis; Global warming; Partial equilibrium models; Stochastic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Spreen, Thomas H., 2006. "Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming Models and Trade Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
- Apland, Jeffrey & Hauer, Grant, 1993. "Discrete Stochastic Programming: Concepts, Examples And A Review Of Empirical Applications," Staff Papers 13793, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- McCarl, Bruce A. & Parandvash, Gholam Hossein, 1988. "Irrigation Development Versus Hydroelectric Generation: Can Interruptible Irrigation Play A Role?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(02), December.
- Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
- Beach, Robert H. & Thomson, Allison M. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Climate Change Impacts On Us Agriculture," Proceedings Issues, 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart- Hohenheim, Germany 91393, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
- Guan, Z. & Philpott, A.B., 2011. "A multistage stochastic programming model for the New Zealand dairy industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 289-299, December.
- Chen, Chi-Chung & McCarl, Bruce A., 2000. "The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
- Butt, Tanveer A. & Mccarl, Bruce A., 2005. "An analytical framework for making long -term projections of undernourishment: A case study for agriculture in Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 434-451, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.