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The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade

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  • Chen, Chi-Chung
  • McCarl, Bruce A.

Abstract

The agricultural value of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge is measured in a value-of-information framework using economic models. We examine the value of considering the full distribution of ENSO phase strength effects as opposed to average ENSO phase strength effects, as well as the implications of considering ENSO impacts on the rest of the world (ROW). A stochastic U.S. agricultural sector model linked with a global trade model is used to assess the value of ENSO phase information. When the full distribution of ENSO phase strength is considered, the value of phase information increases twofold with respect to the average ENSO effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2000)
Issue (Month): 02 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30887

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Keywords: Agribusiness;

References

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  1. James W. Mjelde & Harvey S.J. Hill & John F. Griffiths, 1998. "A Review of Current Evidence on Climate Forecasts and Their Economic Effects in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1089-1095.
  2. Lambert, David K. & McCarl, Bruce A. & He, Quifen & Kaylen, Michael S. & Rosenthal, Wesley & Chang, Ching-Cheng & Nayda, W.I., 1995. "Uncertain Yields In Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application To Global Warming," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(02), December.
  3. Spreen, Thomas H., 2006. "Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming Models and Trade Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
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Cited by:
  1. Heng-Chi Lee & Bruce A. McCarl & Uwe A. Schneider & Chi-Chung Chen, 2004. "Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics 20041, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  2. Rubas, Debra J. & Mjelde, James W. & Love, H. Alan, 2003. "Wheat Trade And The Adoption Of Enso-Based Forecasts: Different Scenarios," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22160, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  3. Uwe A. Schneider & Bruce A. McCarl, 2006. "Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 277-287, November.
  4. Schneider, Uwe A. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2005. "Implications of a Carbon-Based Energy Tax for U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 34(2), October.
  5. Hill, Harvey S.J. & Mjelde, James W., 2002. "Challenges And Opportunities Provided By Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(03), December.
  6. Chi-Chung Chen & Bruce McCarl & Ching-Cheng Chang, 2012. "Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 543-560, February.
  7. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When is it Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
  8. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.

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