Climate Change Impacts On Us Agriculture
AbstractThere is general consensus in the scientific literature that human-induced climate change has taken place and will continue to do so over the next century. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes with “very high confidence” that anthropogenic activities such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation have affected the global climate. The AR4 also indicates that global average temperatures are expected to increase by another 1.1°C to 5.4°C by 2100, depending on the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases that takes place during this time. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, temperature increases, altered precipitation patterns and other factors influenced by climate have already begun to impact U.S. agriculture. Climate change will continue to have significant effects on U.S. agriculture, water resources, land resources, and biodiversity in the future as temperature extremes begin exceeding thresholds that harm crop growth more frequently and precipitation and runoff patterns continue to change. In this study, we provide an assessment of the potential long-term implications of climate change on landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and production practices in the U.S., combining a crop process model (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model) and an economic model of the U.S. forestry and agricultural sector (Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). Agricultural producers have always faced numerous production and price risks, but forecasts of more rapid changes in climatic conditions in the future have raised concerns that these risks will increase in the future relative to historical conditions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium in its series Proceedings Issues, 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart- Hohenheim, Germany with number 91393.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
climate change; crop yields; EPIC; FASOM; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C61; Q18; Q54;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2010-08-06 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2010-08-06 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2010-08-06 (Environmental Economics)
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- Fuss, Sabine & Havlik, Petr & Szolgayova, Jana & Schmid, Erwin & Obersteiner, Michael, 2011. "Large-Scale Modelling of Global Food Security and Adaptation under Crop Yield Uncertainty," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114347, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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