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What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments

Author

Listed:
  • Martinez, Pilar
  • Blanco, Maria
  • Van Doorslaer, Benjamin
  • Ramos, Fabien
  • Stanca, Lucian

Abstract

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compare a reference scenario for 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results show that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Martinez, Pilar & Blanco, Maria & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Ramos, Fabien & Stanca, Lucian, 2015. "What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212230, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212230
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Blanco, Maria & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2014. "Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182826, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-10, July.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty;
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