IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v49y2010i4p799-822.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Pervez Zamurrad Janjua

    (International Institute of Islamic Economics
    International Islamic University (IIUI), Islamabad)

  • Ghulam Samad

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • Nazakat Ullah Khan

    (International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University (IIUI), Islamabad)

Abstract

Climate change, due to greenhouse gases increasing the earth’s overall temperature, is an emerging issue of agricultural production. The higher temperatures may negatively affect the growth process of wheat and decrease the production of wheat. The objective of this study is to look at the impact of climate change on wheat production which is the main food crop of Pakistan. The study uses the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the production of wheat in Pakistan. The study considers annual data from 1960 to 2009. On the basis of this historical data, the study captures trends for the impact of climate change on wheat production for the period 2010-2060. The results of the historical data estimation reveal that up until now, there is no significant negative impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan. However, future wheat production will significantly depend on the climate change variables. Therefore, appropriate adaptative and mitigative techniques are recommended to cope with or at least to reduce this newly emerging hazard.

Suggested Citation

  • Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799-822.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:49:y:2010:i:4:p:799-822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2010/Volume4/799-822.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Sanghi, Apurva, 2001. "The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 85-101, February.
    2. Seo, Sung-No Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Munasinghe, Mohan, 2005. "Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a Ricardian valuation," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 581-596, October.
    3. Hussain, Syed Sajidin & Mudasser, Muhammad, 2007. "Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan - An econometric analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 494-501, May.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    6. repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stephen P. A. Brown, 1998. "Global warming policy: some economic implications," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 26-35.
    8. Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-10, July.
    9. Winters, Paul C. & Murgai, Rinku & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & de Janvry, Alain, 1996. "Climate Change, Agriculture, And Developing Economies," CUDARE Working Papers 25079, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    10. Clem Tisdell, 2008. "Global warming and the future of Pacific Island countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(12), pages 889-903, October.
    11. Fan Zhai & Juzhong Zhuang, 2009. "Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:1921, eSocialSciences.
    12. Robert Mendelsohn & William D. Nordhaus & Daigee Shaw, 1993. "Measuring the Impact of Global Warming in Agriculture," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1045, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lokonon, Boris Odilon & Savadogo, Kimseyinga & Mbaye, Ahmadou, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of climate shocks on farm performance and adaptation responses in the Niger basin of Benin," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Wassie, Solomon Bizuayehu, 2017. "Long Run Determinants Of Cereal Production In Ethiopia: Does Co2 Emission Matter?," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(2), April.
    3. Alvar-Beltrán, J. & Heureux, A. & Soldan, R. & Manzanas, R. & Khan, B. & Dalla Marta, A., 2021. "Assessing the impact of climate change on wheat and sugarcane with the AquaCrop model along the Indus River Basin, Pakistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    4. Heman D. Lohano, "undated". "Weather Variability, Agricultural Revenues and Internal Migration: Evidence from Pakistan," Working papers 99, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    5. Shakeel Ahmad & Muhammad Tariq & Touseef Hussain & Qasir Abbas & Hamidullah Elham & Iqbal Haider & Xiangmei Li, 2020. "Does Chinese FDI, Climate Change, and CO 2 Emissions Stimulate Agricultural Productivity? An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Bakhtmina Zia & Dr Muhammad Rafiq PhD Research Scholar & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan & Associate Professor & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan, 2020. "Reviewing climate change and agricultural market competitiveness," Papers 2008.13726, arXiv.org.
    7. Muhammad Nouman Shafiq & Seemab Gillani & Shaiza Shafiq, 2021. "Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Pakistan," iRASD Journal of Energy and Environment, International Research Association for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 2(2), pages 47-54, December.
    8. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    9. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    10. Nasir Munir & Adiqa Kiani & Asia Baig, 2016. "Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 1(1), pages 47-55, December.
    11. Pakrooh, Parisa & Kamal, Muhamad Abdul, 2023. "Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Iran: Evidence from national and provincial data analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    12. Sohail Abbas & Zulfiqar Ali Mayo, 2021. "Impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1706-1728, February.
    13. Akbar Khan Khajjak & Tehmina Mangan & Habibullah Magsi & Aijaz Ali Khooharo, 2022. "Exploring the Inefficient Groundwater Use by Wheat Farmers: An Evidence from Sindh, Pakistan," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 22-31.
    14. Anwar Hussain & Rabia Bangash, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on Crops’ Productivity across Selected Agro-ecological Zones in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 163-187.
    15. Muhammad Aamir Khan & Alishba Tahir & Nabila Khurshid & Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Mukhtar Ahmed & Houcine Boughanmi, 2020. "Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2011. "Estimating Ricardian Models With Panel Data," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 301-319.
    2. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Woitek, Ulrich, 2022. "Prenatal climate shocks and adult height in developing countries. Evidence from Japan (1872–1917)," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Christian Hott & Judith Regner, 2023. "Weather extremes, agriculture and the value of weather index insurance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(2), pages 230-259, September.
    4. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    5. Rodrigo Garcia‐Verdu & Alexis Meyer‐Cirkel & Akira Sasahara & Hans Weisfeld, 2022. "Importing inputs for climate change mitigation: The case of agricultural productivity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 34-56, February.
    6. Birthal, P.S. & Khan, T.M. & Negi, D.S. & Agarwal, S., 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Yields of Major Food Crops in India: Implications for Food Security," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 27(2).
    7. Robert Mendelsohn & Larry Williams, 2004. "Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 315-333, October.
    8. Mendelsohn, Robert & Seo, Niggol, 2007. "Changing farm types and irrigation as an adaptation to climate change in Latin American agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4161, The World Bank.
    9. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "Temperature, rainfall and economic growth in Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-18, February.
    10. Fahad, Shah & Wang, Jianling, 2018. "Farmers’ risk perception, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change in rural Pakistan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 301-309.
    11. K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2009. "Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture," Working Papers 2009-043, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    12. R. P. Dayani Gunathilaka & James C. R. Smart & Christopher M. Fleming, 2017. "The impact of changing climate on perennial crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 577-592, February.
    13. Adel Benhamed & Yousif Osman & Ousama Ben-Salha & Zied Jaidi, 2023. "Unveiling the Spatial Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    14. Hossain, Mohammad Shakhawat & Arshad, Muhammad & Qian, Lu & Zhao, Minjuan & Mehmood, Yasir & Kächele, Harald, 2019. "Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: An application of Ricardian method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Birthal, P.S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Kumar, Shiv & Aggarwal, Shaily & Suresh, A. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin, 2014. "How Sensitive is Indian Agriculture to Climate Change?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(4), pages 1-14.
    16. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Ajay Kumar, 2014. "Climate Change and Sugarcane Productivity in India: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 111-122.
    18. Rajapaksha P. D. Gunathilaka & James C. R. Smart & Christopher M. Fleming & Syezlin Hasan, 2018. "The impact of climate change on labour demand in the plantation sector: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(3), pages 480-500, July.
    19. Mora-Rivera, José Jorge, 2013. "efectos del cambio climático sobre la renta de la tierra de guatemala: un enfoque ricardiano," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(38), pages 7-38, segundo t.
    20. Salvatore Di Falco & Mahmud Yesuf & Gunnar Kohlin & Claudia Ringler, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 457-478, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Global Warming; Greenhouse Gases (GHGs); C3&C4 Crops;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:49:y:2010:i:4:p:799-822. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.