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Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

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  • Ahmed, Syud Amer
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Ramankutty, Navin
  • Rios, Ana R.
  • Rowhani, Pedram

Abstract

Climate volatility will increase in the future, with agricultural productivity expected to become increasingly volatile as well. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to the climate, rising climate volatility can have severe implications for poverty. We develop and use an integrated framework to estimate the poverty vulnerabilities of different socio-economic strata in Tanzania under current and future climate. We find that households across various strata are similarly vulnerable to being impoverished when considered in terms of their stratum’s populations, with poverty vulnerability of all groups higher in the 21st Century than in the late 20th Century. When the contributions of the different strata to the national poverty changes are taken into account, the rural and urban households with diversified income sources are found to account for the largest poverty changes due to their large shares in initial total poverty.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49358.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49358

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Keywords: climate; volatility; poverty vulnerability; Tanzania; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development;

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  1. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
  2. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Morrissey, Oliver & Leyaro, Vincent, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Tanzania," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48550, World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, 08.
  2. de la Fuente, Alejandro & Villarroel, Marcelo Olivera, 2013. "The poverty impact of climate change in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6461, The World Bank.
  3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(6), pages 2727-2750, June.
  4. Hertel, Thomas W., 2011. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100557, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  5. Emmanuel Skoufias & Mariano Rabassa & Sergio Olivieri & Milan Brahmbhatt, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10102, The World Bank.
  6. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, 08.
  7. World Bank, 2012. "Bangladesh - Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth : Opportunities and Challenges, Volume 2. Main Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12121, The World Bank.
  8. Pamela Ragazzi, 2012. "Climate Change and Migration: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 2012031, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
  9. Hussein, Zekarias & Hertel, Thomas & Golub, Alla, 2013. "Climate change, mitigation policy, and poverty in developing countries," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150732, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 2013-017, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  11. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
  12. Muller, Adrian & Olesen, Joergen & Smith, Laurence & Davis, Joan & Dytrtová, Karolína & Gattinger, Andreas & Lampkin, Nic & Niggli, Urs, 2012. "Reducing Global Warming and Adapting to Climate Change: The Potential of Organic Agriculture," Working Papers in Economics 526, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  13. Tali Hatuka & Hadas Saaroni, 2013. "Resilience of Outdoor Spaces in an Era of Climate Change: The Problem of Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 90-99, January.
  14. World Bank, 2010. "Climate Change and Economic Policies in APEC Economies : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2948, The World Bank.

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