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Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

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  • Ahmed, Syud Amer
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Ramankutty, Navin
  • Rios, Ana R.
  • Rowhani, Pedram

Abstract

Climate volatility will increase in the future, with agricultural productivity expected to become increasingly volatile as well. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to the climate, rising climate volatility can have severe implications for poverty. We develop and use an integrated framework to estimate the poverty vulnerabilities of different socio-economic strata in Tanzania under current and future climate. We find that households across various strata are similarly vulnerable to being impoverished when considered in terms of their stratum’s populations, with poverty vulnerability of all groups higher in the 21st Century than in the late 20th Century. When the contributions of the different strata to the national poverty changes are taken into account, the rural and urban households with diversified income sources are found to account for the largest poverty changes due to their large shares in initial total poverty.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49358.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49358

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Keywords: climate; volatility; poverty vulnerability; Tanzania; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development;

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References

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  1. Morrissey, Oliver & Leyaro, Vincent, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Tanzania," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48550, World Bank.
  2. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
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Cited by:
  1. Tali Hatuka & Hadas Saaroni, 2013. "Resilience of Outdoor Spaces in an Era of Climate Change: The Problem of Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 90-99, January.
  2. Pamela Ragazzi, 2012. "Climate Change and Migration: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 2012031, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
  3. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  4. Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 2012. "Agriculture and trade opportunities for Tanzania : past volatility and future climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6132, The World Bank.
  5. Thurlow, James & Yu, Winston, 2011. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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