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WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues

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Author Info
Anderson, Kym
Valenzuela, Ernesto

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Abstract

Four West African nations have demanded the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda include a Cotton Initiative that involves two issues: cutting cotton subsidies and tariffs, and assisting farm productivity growth in Africa. This paper provides estimates of the potential economic impacts of (a) complete or partial cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally and (b) cotton productivity growth through the adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton varieties. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results confirm that – unlike for other agricultural subsidies and tariffs – for cotton it is subsidy reductions rather than tariff cuts that would make by far the largest impact. For Sub-Saharan Africa the potential gains are huge relative to the effects on them of reforming other merchandise trade policies. And they could be more than doubled if that reform provided the cash for farmers to take advantage of the biotechnology revolution and adopt GM cotton varieties. But those potential gains, and the affordability of switching to costly GM seed, depend crucially on the extent to which high-income countries are willing to lower domestic support to their cotton farmers.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5567.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5567

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Related research
Keywords: computable general equilibrium modeling; cotton biotechnology; economic welfare; GMOs; subsidy and tariff reform;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Agricultural Extension Services
Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kym Anderson & Lee Ann Jackson, 2005. "Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 385-410, September.
  2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The relative importance of global agricultural subsidies and market access," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 357-376, November. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
  4. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Would multilateral trade reform benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3616, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Harald Grethe, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press for the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 591-595, December.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas, 2006. "Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Blasco, Lorea Barron & Devadoss, Stephen & Stodick, Leroy, 2006. "The Doha Round Declaration on Cotton: A Catalyst for Poverty Reduction in Africa?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21161, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  3. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. BAQUEDANO, Felix G. & SANDERS, John H., 2008. "Increasing Cotton Farmers Incomes in Mali West Africa: Eliminate Subsidies in Developed Countries or Productivity Increase in Mali?," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6426, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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