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Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts

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Author Info

  • Kym Anderson

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Ernesto Valenzuela

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Lee Ann Jackson

    ()
    (World Trade Organization, Geneva)

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results suggest that by following the lead of China, South Africa and most recently India, adoption of GM cotton varieties by other developing countries – especially in Sub-Saharan Africa – could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those early-adopting countries. Furthermore, those estimated gains are shown to exceed – and reinforce – those from a successful campaign under the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda to reduce/remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

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File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/papers/0707.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies in its series Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers with number 2007-07.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2007-07

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Related research

Keywords: GMOs; cotton biotechnology; computable general equilibrium modeling; economic welfare; subsidy and tariff reform;

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References

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  1. Richard Bennett & Uma Kambhampati & Stephen Morse & Yousouf Ismael, 2006. "Farm-Level Economic Performance of Genetically Modified Cotton in Maharashtra, India," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 59-71.
  2. Kym Anderson & Lee Ann Jackson, 2005. "Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(3), pages 385-410, September.
  3. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2004. "Biotechnology boosts to crop productivity in China: trade and welfare implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 27-54, October.
  4. Qaim, Matin, 2003. "Bt Cotton in India: Field Trial Results and Economic Projections," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2115-2127, December.
  5. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & Rozelle, Scott & Qiao, Fangbin & Pray, Carl E., 2002. "Transgenic varieties and productivity of smallholder cotton farmers in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(3), September.
  6. Pearson, Ken & Channing Arndt, 2000. "Implementing Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Using GEMPACK," GTAP Technical Papers 474, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  7. Kym Anderson & Chantal Nielsen, 2002. "Economic Effects of Agricultural Biotechnology Research in the Presence of Price-distorting Policies," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-32, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  8. Reimer, Jeff & Thomas Hertel, 2004. "International Cross Section Estimates of Demand for Use in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 1647, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  9. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
  10. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
  11. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, 08.
  12. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  13. Zhang, Ping & Fletcher, Stanley M. & Ethridge, Don E., 1994. "Interfiber Competition In Textile Mills Over Time," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
  14. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction to Systematic Sensitivity Analysis via Gaussian Quadrature," GTAP Technical Papers 305, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  15. Hertel, Thomas W & Masters, William A & Elbehri, Aziz, 1998. "The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 7(2), pages 208-36, July.
  16. Matin Qaim & Arjunan Subramanian & Gopal Naik & David Zilberman, 2006. "Adoption of Bt Cotton and Impact Variability: Insights from India," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 48-58.
  17. DeVuyst, Eric A. & Preckel, Paul V., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, 08.
  2. Baffes, John, 2007. "Distortions to Cotton Sector Incentives in West and Central Africa," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48526, World Bank.

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