Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis
AbstractThe Bogor Declaration of 1994 proposed free trade in the Asia Pacific region by the year 2020. If implemented as announced, this program will have important implications for the world economy over the next few decades. This paper uses a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (APGCUBED) to evaluate the economic impacts of the Bogor Declaration. The focus is on the adjustments between 1995 and 2020 in many of the APEC economies. A key aspect of the study is the role of international capital flows, expectations and physical capital accumulation in determining the size and distribution of income gains from this ambitious program of trade reform. The paper compares the implication of full APEC trade liberalization with liberalization between APEC members on a preferential basis and with liberalization that is restricted to ASEAN member economies. It is found that the largest gains for participating economies are realized by full non- preferential liberalization. Preferential liberalization only between APEC economies by discriminating against non-APEC economies only yields two thirds of these gains.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Brookings Institution International Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 122.
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- Prof Warwick McKibbin, 1996. "Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis," Trade and Development 96/1, Australian National University, Department of Economics.
- McKibbin, W.J., 1996. "Quantifying APEC Trade Libralization: A Dynamic Analysis," Papers 122, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
- Warwick J. McKibbin, 1996. "Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 1996-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
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