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Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects

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  • Michael A. Kouparitsas

Abstract

Despite their complexity, existing policy evaluation methods ignore many features of the real world that are pertinent for welfare analysis of trade policy. The main limitation of these technics is that they are static, which means they ignore important dynamic consequences of trade liberalization. This paper develops dynamic tools that overcome many of these weaknesses. I apply these technics to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). My analysis suggests that while the steady state gains from NAFTA are significant, the transitional costs associated with moving to the liberalized steady state are relatively large, so that on net the trade policy produces modest welfare gains for North America.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-98-15.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-98-15

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Keywords: North American Free Trade Agreement ; Free trade;

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References

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  1. Marianne Baxter, 1991. "Fiscal policy, specialization, and trade in the two-sector model: the return of Ricardo?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 56, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 4975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1991. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and A Computational Assessment," Working Papers 289, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  5. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  7. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
  9. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34.
  10. McKibbin, W.J., 1997. "Regional and Multiregional Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare," Papers 134, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  11. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "Why do countries pursue bilateral trade agreements: a case study of North America," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June.
  13. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-Industry Effects," NBER Working Papers 2965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  16. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867, April.
  17. J. David Richardson & Lionel Olmer & Paula Stern, 1994. "Trade Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 627-690 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May.
  19. Joyce Manchester & Warwick Mckibbin, 1995. "The global macroeconomics of NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-223, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claustra Bajona & Tianshu Chu, 2009. "Data Appendix to "Reforming the State-Owned Enterprises in China: Effects of WTO Accession"," Technical Appendices 06-12, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  2. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "Why do countries pursue bilateral trade agreements: a case study of North America," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2007. "International Trade Dynamics with Intermediate Inputs," 2007 Meeting Papers 722, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Álvarez-Parra, Fernando & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Toledo, Manuel, 2013. "Durable goods, financial frictions, and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 720-736.
  5. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Business Cycles in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 11/133, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Francisco Sáez & Fernando Alvarez & Jesús Morales & Giovanni Guedez, 2011. "Expectations, Inter-Sectorial Relationships and the Business Cycle," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(63), pages 97-147, July - Se.

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