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Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects

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Michael A. Kouparitsas

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Abstract

Despite their complexity, existing policy evaluation methods ignore many features of the real world that are pertinent for welfare analysis of trade policy. The main limitation of these technics is that they are static, which means they ignore important dynamic consequences of trade liberalization. This paper develops dynamic tools that overcome many of these weaknesses. I apply these technics to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). My analysis suggests that while the steady state gains from NAFTA are significant, the transitional costs associated with moving to the liberalized steady state are relatively large, so that on net the trade policy produces modest welfare gains for North America.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-98-15.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-98-15

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Keywords: North American Free Trade Agreement ; Free trade;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  2. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34. [Downloadable!]
  3. J. David Richardson & Lionel Olmer & Paula Stern, 1994. "Trade Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 627-690 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  5. Joyce Manchester & Warwick Mckibbin, 1995. "The global macroeconomics of NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-223, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "Why do countries pursue bilateral trade agreements: a case study of North America," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  7. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Papers 118, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
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  10. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-80, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1991. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and A Computational Assessment," Working Papers 289, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  16. Baxter, Marianne, 1992. "Fiscal Policy, Specialization, and Trade in the Two-Sector Model: The Return of Ricardo?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 713-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. McKibbin, W.J., 1997. "Regional and Multiregional Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare," Papers 134, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  18. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "Why do countries pursue bilateral trade agreements: a case study of North America," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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