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Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models

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Author Info
Patrick J. Kehoe
Timothy J. Kehoe

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Abstract

We examine the results of four static applied general equilibrium (AGE) modeling teams' analyses of the effects of NAFTA. What they show is that Mexico's economy, because it's the smallest, will see the biggest NAFTA-produced increase in economic welfare: from 2 to 5 percent of GDP. The U.S. welfare increase will be small, around 0.1 percent of GDP; Canada will notice no welfare increase due to NAFTA. We then discuss two examples of dynamic phenomena—labor force adjustment and capital flows—which are likely to influence NAFTA's welfare impact, but that aren't easy to incorporate into static AGE models. Early results indicate that this is an important direction for future study.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (1994)
Issue (Month): Spr ()
Pages: 17-34
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1994:i:spr:p:17-34:n:v.18no.2

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Keywords: North American Free Trade Agreement;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hall, Robert E, 1982. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 716-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Topel, Robert H, 1991. "Specific Capital, Mobility, and Wages: Wages Rise with Job Seniority," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 145-76, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M., 1988. "U.S.-Canada Bilateral Tariff Elimination: The Role Of Product Differentiation And Market Structure," Working Papers 227, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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  1. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "A dynamic macroeconomic analysis of NAFTA," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 14-35. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Romalis, 2005. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kimakova, Alena & Rajabiun, Reza, 1999. "An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of EU Integration for Hungary and Slovakia," Transition Economics Series 9, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Trejos, Alberto & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes, 2008. "Trade in intermediate goods and total factor productivity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 676, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  5. Cunha, Alexandre B. & Teixeira, Arilton, 2002. "The Impacts of Trade Blocks and Tax Reforms on the Brazilian Economy," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_22, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sule Ozler & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Productivity response to reduction in trade barriers: evidence from Turkish manufacturing plants," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 339-360, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Mathan Satchi & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Growth and labour markets in developing countries," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 06-12, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Trejos, Alberto, 2001. "On the Long Run Effects of Barriers to Trade," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 436, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  9. Rodrigo Garcá-Verdú, 2005. "Factor Shares from Household Survey Data," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_057, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mathan Satchi & Jonathan Temple, 2009. "Labor Markets and Productivity in Developing Countries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 183-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Susanto, Dwi & Rosson, C. Parr & Adcock, Flynn J., 2006. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the North American Free Trade Agreement: The Case of Agricultural Sector," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21357, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  12. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Rossi Junior, José Luiz, 2001. "New Evidence on Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 433, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  13. Chomo, Grace V., 2002. "Free Trade Agreements Between Developing and Industrialized Countries: Comparing the U.S.-Jordan FTA with Mexico's Experience Under NAFTA," Working Papers 15868, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. David M. Gould, 1998. "Has NAFTA changed North American trade?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 12-23. [Downloadable!]
  15. Erinç Yeldan & Xinshen Diao, 1998. "Interface of Trade Liberalization, Accumulation and Growth in A World of Multi-Polar trade Blocs : Lessonsfrom a Multi-Regional Global General Equilibrium Model," Departmental Working Papers 9817, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Bayar, Ali. & Diao, Xinshen & Yeldan, A. Erinc, 2000. "An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union," TMD discussion papers 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  17. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1998. "Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects," Working Paper Series WP-98-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  18. Azim M. Sadikov, 2008. "External Tariff Liberalization in CARICOM: A Commodity-Level Analysis," IMF Working Papers 08/33, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Daniel Piazalo, 2000. "Poland’s Membership in the European Union: An Analysis with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model," LICOS Discussion Papers 8900, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
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