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Why do countries pursue bilateral trade agreements: a case study of North America

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Author Info
Michael A. Kouparitsas

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Abstract

Current trade theory argues that countries pursue bilateral trade agreements to escape from a terms-of-trade driven prisoners' dilemma. This paper offers an empirical test of the theory. Using simulation results from a quantitative trade model of North America I show that the non-cooperative and cooperative payoffs implicit in the CFTA and NAFTA take on the two essential elements of a prisoners' dilemma. First, my results suggest that irrespective of county size unilateral liberalization makes the liberalizing country worse off, while making its regional trading partner better off. Next, I show that cooperative bilateral agreements make both liberalizing partners better off.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues with number WP-97-20.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhma:wp-97-20

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Keywords: North American Free Trade Agreement

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Feenstra, R.C., 1995. "Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy," Papers 95-10, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
    Other versions:
  3. Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bagwell, Kyle & Staiger, Robert W, 1998. "Will Preferential Agreements Undermine the Multilateral Trading System?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1162-82, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1998. "Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects," Working Paper Series WP-98-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 5086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1991. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and A Computational Assessment," Working Papers 289, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  10. David Lipton & James M. Poterba & Jeffrey Sachs & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Multiple Shooting in Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Baxter, Marianne, 1992. "Fiscal Policy, Specialization, and Trade in the Two-Sector Model: The Return of Ricardo?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 713-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  13. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1998. "Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects," Working Paper Series WP-98-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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