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The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

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  • Warwick Mckibbin
  • Dominick Salvatore

Abstract

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (1995)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 111-129

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:6:y:1995:i:2:p:111-129

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: Uruguay Round; tariffs; quotas; antidumping; subsidies; safeguards; intellectual property; services; trade-related investment measures; GATT; World Trade Organization;

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References

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  1. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "Environmental Policy and International Trade," Papers 117, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  2. Salvatore,Dominick (ed.), 1993. "Protectionism and World Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424899.
  3. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
  4. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Working Paper Series 270, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  6. C. Fred Bergsten & Marcus Noland, 1993. "Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 34.
  7. Salvatore,Dominick (ed.), 1993. "Protectionism and World Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521414555.
  8. Dominick Salvatore, 1989. "A model of dumping and protectionism in the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(4), pages 763-781, December.
  9. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1989. "Protectionism," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262521504, December.
  10. Martin Feldstein, 1988. "International Economic Cooperation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld88-4, October.
  11. D. Greenaway & R. Hine, 1993. "Trade policy and protection in the European Community," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 433-456, December.
  12. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
  13. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, J.P., 1992. "G-Cubec: A Dynamic Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model of the Global economy (Quantifying the Cost of Curbing CO2 Emissions)," Papers 98, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  14. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1994. "Measuring the Costs of Protection in the United States," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 77.
  15. repec:fth:wilfau:91151 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Goldin,Ian & Winters,L. Alan (ed.), 1992. "Open Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521420563.
  17. Nguyen, T.T. & Perroni, C. & Wigle, R.M., 1991. "The Value of a Uruguay Round Success," Working Papers 91151, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  18. Robert E. Baldwin, 1988. "Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald88-2, October.
  19. Joyce Manchester & Warwick Mckibbin, 1995. "The global macroeconomics of NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-223, July.
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Cited by:
  1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  2. Warwick. J. McKibbin, . "Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis," Discussion Papers 122, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  3. Coyle, William T. & Wang, Zhi, 1998. "Open Regionalism In Apec: Impacts On U.S. Agriculture And Trade," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2001. "Should trade barriers be phased-out slowly? A case study of North America," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 875-900, November.
  5. McCalman, Phillip, 2002. "Multi-lateral trade negotiations and the Most Favored Nation clause," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 151-176, June.

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