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Quantifying APEC Trade Libralization: A Dynamic Analysis

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Author Info

  • McKibbin, W.J.

Abstract

The Bogor Declaration of 1994 proposed free trade in the Asia Pacific region by the year 2020. If implemented as announced, this program will have important implications for the world economy over the next few decades. This paper uses a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (APGCUBED) to evaluate the economic impacts of the Bogor Declaration. The focus is on the adjustments between 1995 and 2020 in many of the APEC economies. A key aspect of the study is the role of international capital flows, expectations and physical capital accumulation in determining the size and distribution of income gains from this ambitious program of trade reform. The paper compares the implication of full APEC trade liberalization with liberalization between APEC members on a preferential basis and with liberalization that is restricted to ASEAN member economies. It is found that the largest gains for participating economies are realized by full non-preferential liberalization.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Brookings Institution - Working Papers in its series Papers with number 122.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:brooki:122

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Postal: THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE N.W. WASHINGTON D.C. 20036 U.S.A.
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Web page: http://www.brook.edu/
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Keywords: INTERNATIONAL TRADE ; TRADE LIBERALIZATION;

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References

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  1. Cooper, Russel J & McLaren, Keith R, 1983. "The ORANI-MACRO Interface: An Illustrative Exposition," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(165), pages 166-79, June.
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  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  6. Mckibbin, W.J. & Sundberg, M.W., 1990. "Macroeconomic Linkages Between The Oecd And The Asia-Pacific Region," Papers 80, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  7. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
  8. repec:fth:harver:1438 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Joyce Manchester & Warwick Mckibbin, 1995. "The global macroeconomics of NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-223, July.
  10. Minford, Patrick & Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nowell, Eric, 1986. "A new classical econometric model of the world economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 154-174, July.
  11. Martin, W. & Winters, L.A., 1995. "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 307, World Bank.
  12. Bruce F. Parsell & Alan A. Powell & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1989. "The Reconciliation of Computable General Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Modelling: Grounds for Hope?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-44, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  13. W. J. McKibbin & P. J. Wilcoxen, . "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Discussion Papers 118, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  14. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-80, May.
  15. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 1992. "Dynamic response to foreign transfers and terms-of-trade shocks in open economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1061, The World Bank.
  16. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
  17. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ballard, Charles L. & Cheong, Inkyo, 1997. "The effects of economic integration in the Pacific Rim: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 505-524.
  2. U-Primo E. Rodriguez, 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22694, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Kym Anderson & Mari Pangestu, 1998. "Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 85-113.
  4. Rodriguez, U-Primo, 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2008-20, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  5. Rina Oktaviani & Eka Puspitawati & Haryadi, 2008. "Impacts of ASEAN Agricultural Trade Liberalization on ASEAN-6 Economies and Income Distribution in Indonesia," Working Papers 5108, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..

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