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The Global Economic Consequences of the Uruguay Round

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  • McKibbin, W.J.
  • Salvatore, D.

Abstract

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Brookings Institution - Working Papers in its series Papers with number 110.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:brooki:110

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Postal: THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE N.W. WASHINGTON D.C. 20036 U.S.A.
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Web page: http://www.brook.edu/
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Keywords: TRADE; FREE TRADE; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION;

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References

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  1. Salvatore,Dominick (ed.), 1993. "Protectionism and World Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424899.
  2. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, J.P., 1992. "G-Cubec: A Dynamic Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model of the Global economy (Quantifying the Cost of Curbing CO2 Emissions)," Papers 98, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  3. Richard Baldwin, 1989. "Measureable Dynamic Gains from Trade," NBER Working Papers 3147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1989. "Protectionism," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262521504, December.
  5. Salvatore,Dominick (ed.), 1993. "Protectionism and World Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521414555.
  6. Trien T. Nguyen & Carlo Perroni & Randall M. Wigle, 1991. "The Value of a Uruguay Round Success," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 359-374, December.
  7. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1994. "Measuring the Costs of Protection in the United States," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 77.
  8. Dominick Salvatore, 1989. "A model of dumping and protectionism in the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(4), pages 763-781, December.
  9. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "Environmental Policy and International Trade," Papers 117, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  10. C. Fred Bergsten & Marcus Noland, 1993. "Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 34.
  11. Goldin,Ian & Winters,L. Alan (ed.), 1992. "Open Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521420563.
  12. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
  13. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1991. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Nguyen, T.T. & Perroni, C. & Wigle, R.M., 1991. "The Value of a Uruguay Round Success," Working Papers 91151, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  15. Robert E. Baldwin, 1988. "Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald88-2.
  16. Martin Feldstein, 1988. "International Economic Cooperation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld88-4.
  17. Joyce Manchester & Warwick Mckibbin, 1995. "The global macroeconomics of NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-223, July.
  18. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  19. D. Greenaway & R. Hine, 1993. "Trade policy and protection in the European Community," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 433-456, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  2. Warwick. J. McKibbin, . "Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis," Discussion Papers 122, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  3. Coyle, William T. & Wang, Zhi, 1998. "Open Regionalism In Apec: Impacts On U.S. Agriculture And Trade," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. McCalman, Phillip, 2002. "Multi-lateral trade negotiations and the Most Favored Nation clause," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 151-176, June.
  5. Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2001. "Should trade barriers be phased-out slowly? A case study of North America," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 875-900, November.

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