Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area
AbstractThe Pacific Rim members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group have different views about the role each should play in fostering further trade liberalization. But at the November 1994 APEC meetings in Bogor they committed themselves to forming an APEC free trade area. The authors explore: 1) the impact of such a free trade area on trade, welfare, and economic structure of the Pacific Rim economies and the European Union; 2) the implications of forming a partial free trade area, excluding such potential partners as China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies, or the United States; 3) whether an APEC free trade area provides more benefits than full trade liberalization that includes the European Union. They analyze these issues using a multicountry, computable general equilibrium model to simulate alternative liberalized trade scenarios. Their findings are as follows. Under the base-case scenario (in which all tariff and most nontariff barriers are removed among the APEC countries, China, Japan, ASEAN, the Asian newly industrializing economies (NIEs), and the United States): all APEC countries gain in GDP and the excluded European Union loses sligthly. Gains are greatest for the poorer countries, for whom trade externalities are more significant. Trade expands greatly, and although there is some trade diversion away from the European Union and the rest of the world, that is swamped by the creation of trade within the free trade area. The U.S.-Japan trade balance improves only slightly (by $1.4 billion), and the U.S.-China balance are much larger, suggesting that changes in sectoral protection make movements in particular bilateral trade balances nearly impossible to predict. When one economy is excluded: there are gains from making the free trade area as broad as possible. Omitting any one region (China, the United States, or the ASEAN 4) makes that region significantly worse off and lowers the gains for all other members as well
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 6 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco
Other versions of this item:
- Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Zhi Wang, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round : the implications of an Asian free trade area," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1467, The World Bank.
- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kilkenny, Maureen & Robinson, Sherman, 1990.
"Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Agricultural Liberalization: Factor Mobility and Macro Closure,"
Staff General Research Papers
11124, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Kilkenny, Maureen & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Computable general equilibrium analysis of agricultural liberalization: Factor mobility and macro closure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 527-556.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Do Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 283-87, May.
- Corden, W.M., 1984. "The normative theory of international trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 63-130 Elsevier.
- Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
- Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
- Richard Baldwin, 1989. "The Growth Effects of 1992," NBER Working Papers 3119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Braga, Carlos A. Primo & Safadi, Raed & Yeats, Alexander, 1994. "NAFTA's Implications for EastAsian exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1351, The World Bank.
- John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204, June.
- Richard Harris, 1983.
"Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition,"
524, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-32, December.
- Brown, D.K., 1992. "The Impact of a North American Free Trade Area: Applied General Equilibrium Models," Working Papers 311, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
- Hallet, Andrew Hughes & Braga, Carlos A. Primo & DEC, 1994.
"The new regionalism and the threat of protectionism,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1349, The World Bank.
- Hallett Andrew Hughes & Braga C. A. Primo, 1994. "The New Regionalism and the Threat of Protectionism," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 388-421, December.
- Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992.
"Applying General Equilibrium,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867, October.
- Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985.
"Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
- David Cox & Richard Harris, 1983. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Working Papers 523, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Brown, Drusilla K., 1987. "Tariffs, the terms of trade, and national product differentiation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-526.
- repec:fth:michin:311 is not listed on IDEAS
- Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, October.
- Venables, Anthony J., 1985. "Trade and trade policy with imperfect competition: The case of identical products and free entry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-19, August.
- J. MUYSKENS & C. de Neubourg, 1986. "Introduction," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1986031, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Productivity and externalities : models of export led growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 387, The World Bank.
- Yoko Sazanami & Shujiro Urata & Hiroki Kawai, 1995. "Measuring the Costs of Protection in Japan," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 32.
- McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 210-234, February.
- Warwick J McKibbin & K K Tang, 1998.
"The Global Economic Impacts of Trade and Financial Reform in China,"
Departmental Working Papers
1998-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, revised Sep 1998.
- Warwick J. McKibbin & K. K. Tang, 2000. "Trade and Financial Reform in China: Impacts on the World Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 979-1003, 08.
- Ballard, Charles L. & Cheong, Inkyo, 1997. "The effects of economic integration in the Pacific Rim: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 505-524.
- Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Wusheng Yu, 2007. "Agricultural trade liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region with specific reference to preferential trade agreements - scenario and impact analysis," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 131-162 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
- Scott McDonald & Karen Thierfelder, 2005. "Impact of Switching Production to Bioenergy Crops: The Switchgrass Example January 2005," Working Papers 2005002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
- Karen Thierfelder & Scott McDonald, 2012. "Globe v1: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 39, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
- Wang, Zhi, 1997. "China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(2-3), pages 239-264, December.
- Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang & Will Martin, 2002. "Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 3-33.
- Coyle, William T. & Wang, Zhi, 1998. "Open Regionalism In Apec: Impacts On U.S. Agriculture And Trade," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Xinshen Diao & Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla & Sherman Robinson, 2003.
"Scenarios for Trade Integration in the Americas,"
CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 33-51.
- Rodriguez, U-Primo, 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2008-20, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
- Robinson, Sherman & Lewis, Jeffrey D., 1996. "Partners or predators? : the impact of regional trade liberalization on Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1626, The World Bank.
- Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Brian Parmenter & Xiao-Guang Zhang, 1998. "Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-130, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2006. "Impact of switching production to bioenergy crops: The switchgrass example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 243-265, March.
- Kym Anderson & Mari Pangestu, 1998. "Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 85-113.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.