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Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment

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Author Info

  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.
  • Perez, Nicostrato D.

Abstract

This paper examines the global food security picture through 2020, using a model that incorporates 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities to estimate supply and demand for food. It concludes that if governments and the international community maintain current levels of commitment to agricultural growth through cost-effective investment in agricultural research, extension, irrigation and water development, human capital, and rural infrastructure, the world as a whole will not experience overwhelming pressure but food security in many developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, will improve little. The paper also presents a more pessimistic scenario brought about by cuts in investment in agriculture and a more hopeful scenario based on increased investment.

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File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/global-food-projections-2020
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series 2020 vision discussion papers with number 5.

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Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fpr:2020dp:5

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Related research

Keywords: Food supply Forecasting.; Food supply Economic aspects Developing countries.; Food security.;

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Cited by:
  1. Wailes, Eric J. & Fang, Cheng & Tuan, Francis C., 1998. "U.S.-China Agricultural Trade: Constraints And Potential," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(01), July.
  2. Prabhu Pingali, 2004. "Westernization of Asian Diets and the Transformation of Food Systems: Implications for research and policy," Working Papers 04-17, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
  3. Barkley, Andrew P. & Nalley, Lawton Lanier & Crespi, John M., 2008. "The Impact of the CIMMYT Wheat Breeding Program on Mexican Wheat Producers and Consumers: An Economic Welfare Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6931, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  4. Pathak, P.S., 2003. "Prospects of Feed Crops in India: The Role of CGPRT Crops," Working Papers 32703, United Nations Centre for Alleviation of Poverty Through Secondary Crops' Development in Asia and the Pacific (CAPSA).
  5. Heckelei, Thomas & Krebs, Elvira & Mollmann, Claus & von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "Comparative Analysis of World Market Projections with Special Regard to Wheat Prices," Discussion Papers 18778, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  6. Yongzheng Yang, 2000. "Food Embargoes against China: Their Likelihood and Potential Consequences," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 304, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Meijer, Siet, 2001. "Livestock To 2020: The Revolution Continues," International Trade in Livestock Products Symposium, January 18-19, 2001, Auckland, New Zealand 14560, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  8. Zhong, Funing & Xiang, Jing & Zhu, Jing, 2012. "Impact of demographic dynamics on food consumption — A case study of energy intake in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1011-1019.
  9. Pingali, Prabhu L., 2006. "Agricultural Growth and Economic Development: A View through the Globalization Lens," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25429, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Hossain, Mahabub, 2006. "Technological Progress for Sustaining Food-Population Balance: Achievement and Challenges," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25316, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  11. Tweeten, Luther G., 1998. "Meeting Tomorrow'S Global Food Needs--A Moral Imperative," Economics and Sociology Occasional Papers 28335, Ohio State University, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics.
  12. San, Nu Nu & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1998. "Indonesian agriculture in transition: Projections of alternative futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 445-465.
  13. Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2000. "Prospects for food demand and supply in Central Asia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 637-646, December.
  14. Staal, Steven & Delgado, Christopher & Nicholson, Charles, 1997. "Smallholder dairying under transactions costs in East Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 779-794, May.
  15. Zhang, Xiaobo & Mount, Timothy D. & Boisvert, Richard N., 2001. "The Demand For Food Grain In China : New Insights Into A Controversy," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 30(1), April.
  16. Scott, Gregory J. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ringler, Claudia, 2000. "Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 561-597, October.
  17. Maharjan, Bekha Lal, 2003. "Prospects of Feed Crops in Nepal: The Role of CGPRT Crops," Working Papers 32723, United Nations Centre for Alleviation of Poverty Through Secondary Crops' Development in Asia and the Pacific (CAPSA).
  18. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  19. Cardenas, Danilo C. & de Villa, Lara Marie M. & Decena, Fezoil Luz C., 2005. "Status and Prospects of Feed Crops in the Philippines," Working Papers 32662, United Nations Centre for Alleviation of Poverty Through Secondary Crops' Development in Asia and the Pacific (CAPSA).
  20. Paarlberg, Robert L., 1997. "Feeding china: a confident view," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-279, June.
  21. Scanlan, Stephen J., 2004. "Women, Food Security, and Development in Less-Industrialized Societies: Contributions and Challenges for the New Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 1807-1829, November.
  22. Surabhi Mittal, 2006. "Structural Shift in Demand for Food: Projections for 2020," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 184, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.

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