Asiaâ€™s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment : A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis
AbstractUsing a dynamic global general equilibrium model, the paper assesses the short- and medium-term impacts of the global financial crisis on Asian economies and the implications of post-crisis adjustment in emerging East Asia (EEA) for the world economy. The analysis suggests that EEA is unlikely to be severely damaged permanently by the global financial crisis, and a worldwide fiscal stimulus could play an important role in stabilizing the global economy in crisis. EEAâ€™s efforts at strengthening regional demand, in conjunction with adopting a more flexible exchange rate regime, will promote more balanced regional growth and facilitate an orderly global rebalancing. However, despite the growing size of EEA in the global economy, the regionâ€™s growth rebalancing has only modest spillover effects on the rest of the world. EEA can contribute to global growth, but it alone cannot become the sole engine driving post-crisis growth in the world economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 23283.
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
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Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
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dynamic global general equilibrium model; global financial crisis; emerging East Asia; EEA; balanced regional growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Masahiro Kawai & Fan Zhai, 2010. "Asiaâ€™s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment : A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis," Finance Working Papers 23283, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Masahiro Kawai & Fan Zhai, 2010. "Asiaâ€™s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment : A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis," Governance Working Papers 23283, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
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