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Combating China’s Export Contraction: Fiscal Expansion or Accelerated Industrial Reform?

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  • Rod Tyers

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

  • Ling Huang

    (School of Economics, Peking University)

Abstract

Initially, the global financial crisis caused a surge of financial inflows to China, raising investment, but this abated in 2008, leaving a substantial contraction in export demand. The government’s key response was to commit to an unprecedented fiscal expansion. Two oftignored consequences are, first that government spending is on non-traded goods and services and so enlarges the consequent real appreciation and, second, that a more inward-looking economy causes firms to face less elastic demand and hence to increase oligopoly rents, further enlarging the real appreciation. Both are important for China because of the contribution of its real-exchange-rate sensitive, low-margin labour-intensive export sector to total employment. An economy-wide analysis is offered, using a model that takes explicit account of oligopoly behaviour. The results suggest that a conventional fiscal expansion would further contract the Chinese economy. On the other hand, notwithstanding the export contraction further industrial reform, emphasising the largely state-owned sectors, would reduce costs and foster growth in both output and modern sector employment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 09-15.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:09-15

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Keywords: China; financial crisis; fiscal expansion; oligopoly; price caps; privatisation;

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References

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  1. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
  2. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  3. Edward J. Balistreri & Russell H. Hillberry & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2008. "Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/89, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  4. Galstyan, Vahagn A. & Lane, Philip R., 2008. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-32, December.
  6. Brennan, Timothy J, 1989. "Regulating by Capping Prices," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 133-47, June.
  7. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rod Tyers & Feng Lu, 2009. "Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2009-496, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  9. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jahangir Aziz & Li Cui, 2007. "Explaining China's Low Consumption," IMF Working Papers 07/181, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2010. "Appreciating the Renminbi," CAMA Working Papers 2010-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Corden, W. Max, 1994. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774099.
  13. Bradley, Ian & Price, Catherine, 1988. "The Economic Regulation of Private Industries by Price Constraints," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 99-106, September.
  14. Don, H. & Gunasekera, B. H. & Tyers, Rod, 1990. "Imperfect competition and returns to scale in a newly industrialising economy : A general equilibrium analysis of Korean trade policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 223-247, November.
  15. Rod Tyers, 2005. "Trade Reform and Manufacturing Pricing Behavior in Four Archetype Asia-Pacific Economies ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 181-203, 06.
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Cited by:
  1. Rod Tyers, 2008. "Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-496, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2012-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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