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Japanese growth and stagnation: A Keynesian perspective

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  • Nakatani, Takeshi
  • Skott, Peter

Abstract

This paper uses a modified Harrodian model to understand both the long period of rapid Japanese growth and the recent period of stagnation. The model has multiple steady-growth solutions when the labour supply is highly elastic, and government intervention, we argue, took the Japanese economy onto a high-growth trajectory. Labour constraints began to ap- pear around 1970, and a combination of high saving rates and slow popu- lation growth account for the stagnation of the 1990s. This combination produces a structural liquidity trap and threatens the sustainability of at- tempts to ensure near full employment through fiscal policy or by running a persistent trade surplus. JEL Categories: E12, E63, O53
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  • Nakatani, Takeshi & Skott, Peter, 2007. "Japanese growth and stagnation: A Keynesian perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 306-332, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:18:y:2007:i:3:p:306-332
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    Cited by:

    1. Fumitaka Furuoka & Kiew Ling Pui & Chinyere Ezeoke & Ray I. Jacob & Olaoluwa S. Yaya, 2024. "Growth Slowdowns And Middle-Income Trap: Evidence From New Unit Root Framework," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 69(01), pages 461-477, March.
    2. Peter Skott, 2016. "Aggregate demand, functional finance, and secular stagnation," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 172-188, September.
    3. Paul Auerbach & Peter Skott, 2021. "Visions of the future – a socialist departure from gloom?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(298), pages 155-177.
    4. Skott, Peter & Gómez-Ramírez, Leopoldo, 2018. "Credit constraints and economic growth in a dual economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 64-76.
    5. de Souza, Joao Paulo A., 2014. "Growth Complementarity Between Agriculture and Industry: Evidence from a Panel of Developing Countries," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2014-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    6. Peter Skott, 2019. "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 233-246, May.
    7. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "On Lower-bound Traps: A Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy in the ÒAgeÓ of Central Banks," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_478, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2013. "Public debt and full employment in a stock-flow consistent model of a corporate economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 511-528.
    9. repec:ums:papers:2012-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2012. "Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, November.
    11. de Souza, João Paulo A. & Gómez-Ramírez, Leopoldo, 2018. "The paradox of Mexico's export boom without growth: A demand-side explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-113.
    12. Peter Skott & Martin Rapetti & Arslan Razmi, 2012. "Real exchange rates and the long-run effects of aggregate demand in economies with underemployment," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2012-06, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    13. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2009. "Some Reflections on the Theory of the “Liquidity Trap”," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 09-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    14. Skott, Peter & Ryoo, Soon, 2015. "Functional finance and intergenerational distribution in a Keynesian OLG model," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2015-13, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    15. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    16. Joao Paulo A. de Souza, 2017. "Biased Technical Change in Agriculture and Industrial Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 549-583, July.
    17. Skott, Peter, 2023. "Endogenous business cycles and economic policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 61-82.
    18. Furuoka, Fumitaka & Pui, Kiew Ling & Ezeoke, Chinyere Mary Rose & Jacob, Ray Ikechukwu & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2019. "Growth Slowdowns and Middle-Income Trap: Evidence from New Unit Root Framework," MPRA Paper 98672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Peter Skott & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos & José Luís da Costa Oreiro, 2022. "Supermultipliers, ‘endogenous autonomous demand’ and functional finance," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 220-244, February.
    20. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    21. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2008. "The "New consensus"and the Post-Keynesian approach to the analysis of liquidity traps," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 08-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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