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The Morning After: Explaining the Slowdown in Japanese Growth in the 1990s

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Tamim Bayoumi

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Abstract

This paper uses a VAR to investigate four possible explanations of the extended slump in Japanese economic activity over the 1990s: the absence of bold and consistent fiscal stimulus; the limited room for expansionary monetary policy due to a liquidity trap; overinvestment and debt overhang; and disruption of financial intermediation. The results indicate that all of these factors played a role, but that the major explanation is disruption in financial intermediation, largely operating through the impact of changes in domestic asset prices on bank lending.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7350.

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Date of creation: Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7350

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 137-206. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ogawa, Kazuo & Kitasaka, Shin-ichi & Yamaoka, Hiroshi & Iwata, Yasuharu, 1996. "Borrowing Constraints and the Role of Land Asset in Japanese Corporate Investment Decision," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 122-149, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ogawa, K. & Kitasaka, S.-I., 2000. "Bank Lending in Japan: its Determinants and Macroeconomic Implications," Papers 505, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ogawa, K. & Suzuki, K., 1996. "Land Value and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Japanese Panel Data," Papers 408, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
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  7. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam Posen, 2003. "It Takes More Than a Bubble to Become Japan," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alan J. Auerbach & William G. Gale, 2009. "Activist Fiscal Policy to Stabilize Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 15407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2008. "The Rise of China and Sustained Recovery of Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-589, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  4. Masami Imai & Seitaro Takarabe, 2009. "Bank Integration and Local Credit Cycle:Evidence from Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert Dekle & Kenneth Kletzer, 2003. "The Japanese Banking Crisis and Economic Growth: Theoretical and Empirical Implications of Deposit Guarantees and Weak Financial Regulation," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1002, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Dekle, Robert & Kletzer, Kenneth, 2004. "Deposit Insurance, Regulatory Forbearance and Economic Growth: Implications for the Japanese Banking Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. R. Anton Braun & Etsuro Shioji, 2003. "Aggregate Risk in Japanese Equity Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-250, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hali J. Edison & Torsten Sløk, 2001. "Wealth Effects and the New Economy," IMF Working Papers 01/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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