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Demographic Dividends, Dependencies, and Economic Growth in China and India

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Author Info

  • Jane Golley

    ()
    (The Australian Centre on China in the World, The Australian National University)

  • Rod Tyers

    ()
    (Business School, The University of Western Australia and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), College of Business and Economics, The Australian National University, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

The world's two population giants (China and India) have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working-aged to non-working-aged. Although much of China's demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India's potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of factors. © 2012 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 11 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 1-26

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:11:y:2012:i:3:p:1-26

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Keywords: China; India; demographic change; and economic growth;

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References

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  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2004. "The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 10919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2010. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Financial Reform," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 592-610, 08.
  5. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India," CAMA Working Papers 2011-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
  8. Rod Tyers & Ian Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006. "The global implications of freer skilled migration," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-468, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  9. Zoë Matthews & Sabu S. Padmadas & Inge Hutter & Juliet McEachran & James J. Brown, 2009. "Does early childbearing and a sterilization-focused family planning programme in India fuel population growth?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(28), pages 693-720, June.
  10. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  2. Wang, Lijian & Béland, Daniel & Zhang, Sifeng, 2014. "Pension fairness in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-36.
  3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Gender 'Rebalancing' in China: A Global-Level Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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