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The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data

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Charles Yuji Horioka
Junmin Wan

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Abstract

In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China?s household survey. We find that China?s household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, (in many cases) the real interest rate, and (in some cases) the inflation rate. However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population have the expected impact on the household saving rate in only one of the four samples. These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis as well as the permanent income hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China?s household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12723.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12723

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 1997. "Consumption, saving and habit formation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 103-108, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Belton, Willie & Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth, 2008. "The Racial Saving Gap Enigma: Unraveling the Role of Institutions," IZA Discussion Papers 3545, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rod Tyers & Feng Lu, 2009. "Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2009-496, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Feng, Jin & He, Lixin & Sato, Hiroshi, 2009. "Public pension and household saving: Evidence from China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jin Feng & Lixin He & Hiroshi Sato, 2009. "Public Pension and Household Saving: Evidence from urban China," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-030, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2009. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," NBER Working Papers 15093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2008. "Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," NBER Working Papers 14546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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