Projected Economic Growth in China and India: The Role of Demographic Change
AbstractWithin the next decade, China’s labour force will begin to contract, while that of India will expand faster than its population. Relative labour abundance will bring higher capital returns and an increasing share of global FDI to India. Yet China may relax its One Child Policy further and India’s fertility could follow the pattern elsewhere in Asia and decline faster than expected. These linkages are explored using a global demographic sub-model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Even with a two-child-policy, China’s growth is projected to slow in future with India becoming the fastest growing economy in the world on the strength of its continued population expansion. While GDP depends positively on fertility and per capita income negatively in both countries, the price of more GDP growth in terms of lost per capita income is lower in China than in India, a result that depends critically on India’s initially higher fertility, its higher youth dependency and the age-gender pattern of its participation rates. India therefore has considerably more to gain, at least in per capita terms, from further reducing its fertility
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2006-477.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2007-08-27 (China)
- NEP-CWA-2007-08-27 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-DEV-2007-08-27 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2007-08-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2007-08-27 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cai Fang & Wang Dewen, 2005. "Demographic transition: implications for growth," Labor and Demography 0512001, EconWPA.
- Wilfred Beckerman & Joanna Pasek, 2003. "The Morality of Market Mechanisms to Control Pollution," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(3), pages 191-207, July.
- Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Jörg Mayer, 2003.
"The Fallacy Of Composition: A Review Of The Literature,"
UNCTAD Discussion Papers
166, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Jörg Mayer, 2002. "The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of the Literature," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 875-894, 06.
- Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006.
"The global implications of freer skilled migration,"
PGDA Working Papers
1006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- Rod Tyers & Ian Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006. "The global implications of freer skilled migration," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-468, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004.
"Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2005. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," PGDA Working Papers 0105, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
- Attanasio, Orazio P, et al, 1999.
"Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 22-35, January.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," NBER Working Papers 5350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazio Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption," IFS Working Papers W95/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- John Gibson & Grant Scobie, 2001. "A cohort analysis of household income, consumption and saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 196-216.
- Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
- Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "How Demographic Change can Bolster Economic Performance in Developing Countries," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(4), pages 1-14, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.