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Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movements of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis

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Author Info
Walmsley, Terri Louise
Winters, L. Alan

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Abstract

While the liberalization of trade has been at the forefront of the global agenda for many decades, the movement of natural persons remains heavily guarded. Nevertheless, restrictions on the movement of natural persons across regions impose a cost on developing and developed economies that far exceeds that of trade restrictions on goods. This Paper uses a global CGE model to investigate the extent of these costs, by examining the effects of an increase in developed countries’ quotas on both skilled and unskilled temporary labour equivalent to 3% of their labour forces. The results confirm that restrictions on the movement of natural persons impose significant costs on nearly all countries (over $150 billion in all), and that those on unskilled labour are more burdensome than those on skilled labour.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3719.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3719

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Related research
Keywords: CGE; GATS Mode 4; temporary migration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Technological Superiority and the Losses from Migration," NBER Working Papers 8971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Borjas, George J, 1995. "The Economic Benefits from Immigration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 3-22, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1984. "Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility : Calculations and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-75. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anderson, Kym, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Agriculture, and Poverty in Low-income Countries," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  2. Jansen, Marion, 2006. "Services Trade Liberalization at the Regional Level: Does Southern and Eastern Africa Stand to Gain from EPA Negotiations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Parsons, Christopher R. & Skeldon, Ronald & Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2007. "Quantifying international migration : a database of bilateral migrant stocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4165, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luca MARCHIORI & I-Ling SHEN & FrŽdŽric DOCQUIER, 2009. "Brain drain in globalization A general equilibrium analysis from the sending countriesÕ perspective," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Rod Tyers & Ian Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006. "The global implications of freer skilled migration," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-468, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Berk Özler & Giovanna Prennushi, 2006. "Toward Greater Global Equity," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 32, pages 3-15. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sanjay Jain & Sumon Majumdar & Sharun Mukand, 2008. "Workers Without Borders? Culture, Migration and the Political Limits to Globalization," Working Papers 1196, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2007. "The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_028, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rutten, Martine, 2008. "Medical migration : what can we learn from the UK's perspective ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4593, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hoekman, Bernard & Michalopoulos, Constantine & Winters, L. alan, 2003. "More favorable and differential treatment of developing countries : toward a new approach in the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3107, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hoekman, Bernard, 2002. "Developing Countries and the Political Economy of the Trading System," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  12. Clemens, Michael A. & Montenegro, Claudio E. & Pritchett, Lant, 2008. "The place premium : wage differences for identical workers across the US border," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4671, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Hoekman, Bernard & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2006. "Services, Economic Development and the Doha Round: Exploiting the Comparative Advantage of the WTO," CEPR Discussion Papers 5628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2004. "A different approach to WTO negotiations in services," CPB Discussion Papers 36, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hoekman, Bernard & Ozden, Caglar, 2009. "The Euro-mediterranean partnership : trade in services as an alternative to migration ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5049, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. RobertE. B. Lucas, 2005. "Migration internationale vers les pays à haut revenu : quelles conséquences pour le développement économique des pays d'origine ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 19(4), pages 123-171. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jacques Poot & Anna Strutt, 2009. "International Trade Agreements and International Migration," Working Papers in Economics 09/06, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Peter E. Robertson, 2007. "Reflections on Australia’s Skilled Migration Policy," Discussion Papers 2007-22, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  19. Milanovic, Branko, 2007. "Ethical case and economic feasibility of global transfers," MPRA Paper 2587, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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